Cadidate Standings in Terms of Delegates and Polls

After 33 primaries and caucuses in the 2016 Presidential Election, the race to the nomination is more than halfway done. Leading on the Republican side is Donald Trump with 743 delegates, followed by Ted Cruz with 517, and John Kasich with 143. On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 1,749 while Bernie Sanders has 1,061 delegates. With just 882 delegates left for the Republicans to distribute and 1,955 delegates for the Democrats, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding who the nominees will be for each party.

On the Republican side, the nominee must claim 1,237 delegates in order to win on the first ballot. While Trump has been the front runner for most of the race, it is unclear whether he will reach the 1,237 benchmark before the nominating convention in July. As more candidates on the Republican side have dropped out, support for Cruz has increased and so has the number of delegates he has been receiving. Cruz now has the possibility to unseat Trump and claim the nomination for himself if he continues to gain momentum as the last few states vote in the primaries. Cruz's commanding win in Wisconsin on Tuesday showed that he has the capability to handily defeat Trump; in fact, he is the only candidate who has repeatedly been able to do this. Polls from Real Clear Politics show that Trump is beating Cruz by just 5 points nationwide 40% to 35% respectively, while Kasich is in a distant third with 20% (McClatchy/Marist). Kasich has not given up hope on the possibility that he could be the next Republican nominee however. If neither Trump nor Cruz have reached the 1,237 delegates by the convention, Kasich could have the opportunity to win the nomination after the first round of voting at the convention. Though Trump, Cruz, and other leaders in the Republican party have called for Kasich to resign from the race, he continues to stay in, most likely as to counter their extreme ideologies to his more traditional, moderate ones.

On the Democratic side, the nominating process has also stayed competitive long after many political pundits thought it would. Sanders has been able to rise from an unknown candidate to one of the most prominent political figures in just 11 months after announcing his bid for the presidency. While it seemed that Clinton would easily defeat Sanders in the first few races, she has not been able to compete with the amount of grassroots support that young Americans have been showing Sanders. The most recent poll from McClatchy/Marist shows that Sanders is leading Clinton by 2 points, 49% to 47%, respectively. However, other polls show that Clinton is still leading the race over Sanders, anywhere from 6 points to 18 points ahead (Pew Research, Public Policy Polling). While the tightening of polls increases the confidence of Sanders supporters, it is still highly unlikely that he will be able to gain the Democratic nomination before the convention. He trails Clinton by almost 700 delegates with 400 or so of those delegates being Super Delegates. These Super Delegates are leaders of the Democratic party and include representatives from Congress who are likely to continue to support Clinton because she is the establishment candidate on the Democratic side. For Sanders to convince these Super Delegates to shift their support from Clinton he would need a win from a major Democratic state such as New York, which could potentially happen, to show these Super Delegates he has what it takes to win.

Looking forward to the end of the Presidential Primary season it is incredible to see how much has changed since the first votes were cast in Iowa in February. Both fields of candidates have been narrowed down considerably, though it is still unclear who each party's nominee will be. While Trump and Clinton still hold leads over their rivals, the commanding lead they once had has almost evaporated. Polls are ever changing and known to inaccurately predict winners, like Sanders victory in Michigan in March, so they must be carefully analyzed and taken with a grain of salt as the campaigns march forward to the conventions and general election.

Hillary Clinton's Performance in Nevada

After a double digit loss to Senator Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire almost two weeks before the Nevada Democratic Caucus, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was looking for a resurgence in her campaign. As the grassroots idealism of the Sanders campaign grew, Clinton's campaign was forced to take a step back and evaluate how her campaign needed to move forward towards the next vote. Based on exit polls received from Nevada it was clear that Clinton did a much better job than Sanders in regards to winning a diverse electorate. Voters that were women, voters that were over the age of 45, voters that were African American, voters that were registered Democrats, and voters that were also union workers, voted for Clinton more often than they voted for Sanders according to CBS News. However, Clinton was not able to gain an advantage with Hispanic voters or voters under the age of 45; Sanders continues to crush Clinton with this percentage. Yet Clinton seemed perfectly fine with this.

In her victory speech, Clinton focused on thanking her supporters both in Nevada and around the country for all of the hard work and donations that they have contributed to her campaign. She promised to "break down every barrier that holds you back" and went after the Sanders campaign stating that "we aren't a single issue country...we need more than a plan for the big banks, the middle class needs a raise." These cracks at the Sanders campaign were not the primary theme in Clinton's speech, but were instead used to highlight issues from her traditional stump speech. With the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday rounding out the first month of official campaigning, Clinton is starting to focus on the general election in November rather than every primary between now and the convention.

Though she needs to find a way to excite young voters, particularly women, she continues to dominate the national media over Sanders. After winning three of the first four contests in the 2016 presidential election cycle, the media is realizing that Clinton still has the power to take the Democratic Nomination in July even with the growing momentum of the Sanders campaign. As the race begins to head South, the media is predicting that Clinton will dominate in almost every contest, especially during Super Tuesday. It seemed as if the media knew Clinton would win Nevada by a reasonable margin that they immediately shifted their attention to her national campaign strategies as soon as she was declared the winner in Nevada. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is ahead in almost every poll ranging from the Carolinas, to Michigan, to Illinois. It is clear that the media is predicting a large margin of victory in regards to pledged delegates to Clinton on Super Tuesday, but there is still the possibility that Sanders could have some surprise wins in the Northeast in Massachusetts and his home state of Vermont.

Tactics and Results of Nevada and South Carolina

On Saturday February 20th the third and fourth contests of the 2016 Presidential Election took place in both South Carolina and Nevada. South Carolina, the first state in the south to vote, held a primary for the Republican field of candidates. Donald Trump came out on top winning all of the state's 50 delegates with 32.5% of the votes while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz essentially tied for second place with 22.5% and 22.3% of the vote respectively. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all came in a distant fourth, fifth, and sixth place all receiving around 7% of the vote. By the end of the night it was clear that Donald Trump, after winning two of the three first contests in this election cycle, was a force to be reckoned with. Though he refrains from using any form of political correctness this tactic has worked well for him for months because he is able to tap into the anger that most middle class Americans have been feeling towards the establishment in Washington. But will the momentum Trump seems to have last until the Republican National Convention in July? Or will one of the more establishment candidates like Rubio or Kasich be able to win enough delegates during Super Tuesday and over the next few months to dump the Trump?

Speaking of establishment candidates Jeb Bush finally dropped out of the race for president this past Saturday. With almost no support in polls nationwide and no delegates won, it was only a matter of time before Bush ended his bid. In the last few weeks Jeb tried every possible strategy to try to gain any support that he could. He tried adding an exclamation point on his campaign slogan and bringing his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, and his brother, former President George W. Bush, on the campaign trail with him. Unfortunately, Bush's campaign was almost doomed from the start. From his announcement, Bush never made it clear exactly what his platform would be throughout the campaign or what he wanted to accomplish if he was successful with his run for the White House. Plus, history was never on his side. Not only was Jeb the third Bush to run for president, but he chose to run in an election when outsider candidates have dominated the political field and made it almost impossible for establishment candidates to get any substantial support. Now that Bush has declared defeat, it is up to Marco Rubio and John Kasich to fight for the title of being the establishment candidate, the one who could possibly defeat Trump over the next few weeks as well as gain as much support as they can from Bush's supporters and super PACs.

Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.

But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come. 

The Democratic Debate February 11, 2016

On Thursday night, just two days after the New Hampshire primary, Democratic candidates Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took the stage for their sixth presidential debate, on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, hosted by PBS News Hour and Facebook. Before this debate began, there was speculation circulating on how Clinton would do after her 22-point loss to Sanders in the New Hampshire primary. Would she remain calm during the debate and subtly make up for the votes she couldn't get in New Hampshire or would she come out blazing with a need to succeed?

It turns out Clinton used both implicit and explicit tactics to show she has what it takes to become America's next president. She took to the stage in seemingly ready to go with an opening statement that focused on breaking down all of the barriers that are in the way of the American people who are just trying to get ahead. Sanders' opening statement was similar to a point; instead he focused more on the idea that just 9 months ago he was a virtually unknown candidate and now he has been able to insight a political revolution against the establishment of the Democratic Party. The first part of the debate focused on how each candidate saw the role of the federal government in everyday Americans lives. Sanders at first did not answer this question directly but rather danced around it saying that he wanted to guarantee health care, public education, and good infrastructure, essentially implying that the federal government would grow under his presidency. Clinton meanwhile explicitly stated that under her administration the federal government would increase in size by about 40%. She also agreed with Sanders goal to guarantee health care to Americans, but didn't understand why there needed to be another health care debate in the country and why the plan that he proposes doesn't seem to add up monetarily. She instead proposed that we continue on the path that the Affordable Care Act provides, a fight she said she has been fighting since it was called "Hillarycare." The debate continued with questions surrounding Social Security, homeland security, and immigration, all important issues that both Sanders and Clinton spent time discussing their plans to solve in much more detail than it seems the Republicans tend to do when they debate.

However, some of the moments that stood out to the media were not when Clinton or Sanders described their differences on immigration or how they want to fix the growing issue of Social Security, but how each candidate conducted themselves during the debate. In a world where the 30-second soundbite could be the most news an American gets during the day, candidates must be perfectly poised 24/7 so they can get the most appealing shot on replay. To some, like myself, Clinton appeared confident and knowledgeable about the issues at hand while other such as the prominent conservative newspaper The National Review thought otherwise. They thought Clinton had a "sleepy showing" and that "she tried to trip up Sanders with detailed policy answers...but caught in a defensive crouch and struggling to explain her own campaign's shortcomings, she never really found the opening she needed." In comparison, The National Review painted Sanders as a winner whenever he said something that could criticize Clinton or put her on the defensive such as immigration reform or her ties to Wall Street with phrasing such as "he showed up" and the idea that he was "forcefully" answering questions. By using specific language the media has the ability to influence voters by describing a candidate either in a flattering or unflattering light.

Another point that the media tends to focus on, specifically when talking about the Democratic race for president, is the gender difference between Clinton and Sanders. Clinton was asked during the debate why such a large percentage of female voters were turning out in support of her opponent Sanders, rather than her. In my opinion she responded with one of the best answers I have heard when listening to a political debate on gender. Clinton essentially said that just because you are a female, that doesn't mean that it is necessary for you to vote for me, the female candidate. She instead said that women have the right to choose who they want to vote for based on their own ideals and directed the conversation to one focused on raising the standard of equality for women in this country. This answer was a refreshing break from the notion that all women must vote for Hillary Clinton based on their gender and a relatively good response to the quote from Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright who said that "there's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other."

Overall, Thursday's Democratic Debate appeared to be much more substantive than the Republican Debates have been in recent weeks. Perhaps that's due to the candidates who appear on stage, but I think that it also has to do with the media that surrounds each parties presidential nominees. Clinton was portrayed as the De facto nominee and given free media attention for months before Sanders and his grassroots momentum grew into a national campaign gaining their own media attention, that for both candidates tends to appear slightly more professional than that of the Republicans. In contrast, the Republicans tend to be portrayed as a bit of a circus with multiple clowns running around stage at any given time. So as a student of political science I have a challenge from you: read news articles that go against what you normally believe. Try to dig deep and figure out how much of what the candidates say is really true by using sources such as FactCheck.org. This is something I plan on doing for the remainder of this presidential debate because to be an informed voting citizen you need to gather actual information from reputable sites, not just what the biased media outlets repeat every hour.

Day Two: Campaign Headquarters and VERMIN SUPREME

After an intriguing morning at the Rubio event our vans decided to continue into downtown Manchester to look for some food because standing for 3 hours tends to make a person quite hungry. Initially we were going to eat at the quintessential Red Arrow restaurant but because it was so busy our groups split up. A small group of us went to an Irish Pub called The Shaskeen which had delicious and authentic fish and chips fare. I even got to meet up with my Uncle Tod and catch up after not seeing him for a few months. Post lunch we met up with our fellow liberal leaning friends before going to visit the campaign headquarters of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

The Clinton campaign headquarters in Manchester seemed to be hidden in plain sight and took us some time to find them. It turned out they were on the top floor of an office building on a side street in Manchester, but because of building restrictions, were not allowed to display any signs to promote their candidate. This made it difficult for us to find their office and seemed an unfortunate area to pick to house a campaign's headquarters. It seemed unusual that such a well known campaign would not want to be in an area where they could clearly be seen from the street by people passing by. Once inside the office we met a welcoming volunteer whose name was Mary and had flown up to her home state of New Hampshire from Florida on January 6th just to volunteer for the Clinton campaign. Mary was helpful and patient as we asked her questions on her day to day activities, personal opinions on candidates, and campaigns in general (during both 2008 and 2012 she was a strong Obama supported and worked endless days to get him elected). Yet Mary's friendliness could not seem to cover up the sense that the Clinton headquarters were being run like a business with a certain air about them that seemed somehow too professional.

Bernie Sander' headquarters on the other hand were unmistakably marked with signs outside the building and wall papering every available inch of space inside. The young woman who first greeted us was named Erica and she was a college student that had been volunteering with the Sanders campaign since September. Erica not only answered our questions but gave us a tour around their offices and offered us any literature and signage that was leftover from the last few weeks of intense campaigning. There was even a gigantic Bernie mural with props that people could take pictures with! Overall the Sanders campaign seemed more eager than the Clinton campaign was to have college students touring their facilities and learning more about the presidential election process. It seemed like each campaign was reflected by the ways their offices were set up and who was at each office when we stopped by.

After visiting each of the Democratic candidates headquarters we had planned to see if we could visit Donald Trump's headquarters which were around Manchester, but due to timing issues we decided to skip this stop and head straight to the Carly Fiorina Super Bowl pre-game party at The Yard Restaurant. And what a good decision this was. As soon as our van was parked our driver and unofficial leader Frank spotted Vermin Supreme.

Yes. The Man. The Myth. The Legend. Vermin Supreme.

I know, most of you may be thinking, "who is Vermin Supreme?" Well, Vermin Supreme is a candidate running to be President of the United States just like Bernie, Hillary, and Donald are all trying to do. He's run every four years since 2004 and tends to take his campaign to the extreme (yet with this election cycle he seems perfectly normal compared to what we've seen already). Most notably Vermin is known to wear a boot on his head and come up with slightly nutty campaign proposals. For instance, promising a pony to every American or making sure we are prepared to handle a zombie apocalypse which was his 2012 platform. And while he may look like a crazy old man to most people, I think he is the embodiment of our democratic system in the United States; to think that anyone who meets the Constitution requirements to run for president can in fact run and receive votes (he got 41 votes in 2008 and 833 in 2012) is frankly amazing.

Pictures from inside Clinton campaign headquarters and outside of Sanders campaign headquarters. 

Vermin Supreme ladies and gentlemen. 

Casually posing with Vermin Supreme and fellow classmates! 

Left to right: Emma, Jenny, Frank, Vermin, Cassidy, Silas, me

Day Two: Rubio Rally

Another early morning for politics here in New Hampshire. After a quick breakfast at the hotel our vans headed off to a small town near Manchester called Londonderry to witness Marco Rubio in action. We got to the school where Rubio was scheduled to speak around 8:30 but were forced to wait almost 2 hours before he eventually showed up.

In the meantime we were able to watch how volunteers handled crowd control with the almost 800 person crowd in just a small elementary gym. By chance our group happened to be stationed near where the media were going to be filming Rubio as he walked in. This gave a lot of us the opportunity to ask questions to reporters and even be interviewed by the media. I myself was interviewed by a man from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. I was asked about my views of the race thus far, what made Rubio a good candidate, and why Donald Trump seemed to be so popular with voters. 

Once Rubio showed up he proceeded to give his speech which highlighted the major focuses of his campaign. He talked about uniting the party, increasing the conservative movement, repealing most  of President Obama's policies, and increasing the size and quality of our military. Afterwards he shook hands with almost everyone in the room, but unfortunately I wasn't able to meet him personally. 

GOP Debate Article

Good morning! As our vans head towards our first event of the day, here is an article from The Washington Post analyzing the candidates from the debate last night: who won, who lost, and everything in between.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/06/winners-and-losers-from-the-new-hampshire-republican-debate/

Day One: Clinton, Burritos, and Debates

cToday was the day! Today we woke up and got on the road at 8:30 in the morning and made our way to the great state of New Hampshire (stopping along the way at The Blue Ben Diner to grab some fabulous breakfast of course!).

As soon as we crossed the border into New Hampshire from Vermont it was clear that the primary is less than a week away. We saw sign after sign for all of the major candidates: Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders. Driving into downtown Concord, New Hampshire's capital, it was clear that this state is invested in their legacy of being the first state to vote and how dedicated they are to this freedom.

The first campaign I was able to interact with during this trip was with the Hillary Clinton campaign with my friend Jenny. We walked to their campaign headquarters in Concord and were able to sign up right away to canvass around neighborhoods. While this was an enjoyable experience it seemed like the Clinton headquarters were not as populated as I was expecting them to be in the capital of one of the first primary states. Yes, the people we interacted with were friendly but they did not seem as energetic as I was expecting them to be about their candidate or about campaigning in general.

However, Jenny and I were able to meet and do some canvassing with an older couple named Annie and Henry. These two have been involved in politics in some way or another since George McGovern ran for president in 1972. They were what I thought more people from the Clinton campaign were going to be like. They were impressed that both Jenny and I were taking such an active interest in politics at a young age and were hopeful that our generation would be able to fix some of the problems that their generation had not. Annie and Henry were dedicated, informative, and energetic to get out the vote and make changes in our country. And I love that. To be able to have two generations working towards the same goal is something you definitely do not see everyday, but I'm glad I got to experience that moment.

After canvassing for a few hours, we returned to our hotel room in search of dinner. We found it at a Mexican Burrito shop where (I kid you not) I got a "Feel the Bern-rito." And it was pretty great! Beef, beans, cheese, rice, guacamole, and spicy mayo was a combo that you could only find in this shop; and the only dinner to get in order to truly get the New Hampshire primary experience.

Finally we ended out night with our own debate watching party at our hotel. This debate was sure to be an exciting event and it did not disappoint. It all started with a mis-calling of the candidates names forcing awkward interactions as Ben Carson was forced to wait to be called onto the stage, with the cameras focused on him the whole time, while almost all of the other candidates were called before him. Throughout the debate, Governor Chris Christie confronted Senator Marco Rubio about his inability to answer a question by simply dancing around it. These interactions showed that Christie wasn't afraid to show voters that he is still in this race and that Rubio may not be the next best candidate. While I finished watching the debate it was hard to focus on after such a long day of traveling and volunteering, so I'll try to post a good analytical article about the debate tomorrow morning.

Iowa Caucus Results

On February 2,2016 the Presidential election officially got underway because on this night the first votes were cast in Iowa to see who would become the 45th President of the United States. The most recent polls from Quinnipiac indicated that Donald Trump was leading in the Republican field with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio rounding out the top three while Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley in the Democratic field. However the results hat the polls had been predicting for months could not perfectly indict how he night would turn out.

In order to figure out exactly how the night went down let's begin with the Republican candidates for president. Polls from various sources had long been indicating that Donald Trump was leading both nationally and in Iowa for the past few weeks though his gap had narrowed to a 7 point lead for Trump, the closer it got to Election Day and the closer Ted Cruz got to the Evangelical voters. On the Democratic side the race was even closer with Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by just 3 points which, as Sanders stated later in the evening is "a virtual tie."

By the end of the night it was clear that Ted Cruz would be the Republican winner with 28% of the vote while Donald Trump came in second with 24% and Marco Rubio rounding out the top three with 23%, a margin that was much closer than most polls had predicted between Trump and Rubio. During his acceptance speech Cruz showed yet again that he is the best representative of the conservative movement, stating this was a "victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation." Trump meanwhile was rather subdued in his comments over his second place finish saying that he "absolutely loves the people of Iowa" and that he is "just honored" about the votes that he received from his supports.

Yet maybe the most surprising victory speech came from Marco Rubio who sounded more as if he had won the entire caucus rather than come in third place, "they told me I didn't have a chance because my hair wasn't great enough and my boots were too high, they told me I needed to wait my turn, to wait in line." With Rubio finishing strongly in third place and surprising many who thought that Trump would have had a much larger margin between the other candidates, Rubio will likely be getting more endorsements, money, and media attention than he has thus far. And with more attention this could mean a stronger finish both in the New Hampshire primary next week and the South Carolina and Nevada contests at the end of this month.

While the Republican race was able to be called relatively early in the night, results for the Democratic race were not officially announced until the next morning because the race was the "closest democratic election in the history of Iowa" according to party officials. In the end Clinton beat Sanders by barely a percentage point, though she began celebrating long before this was officially announced. Clinton spoke from a victory stage early in the evening before all of the caucus votes had been finalized, to thank Iowans as she "breathed a big sigh of relief" that her campaign was able to overcome the grassroots momentum that the Bernie Sanders campaign had been gaining for the past few weeks.

Meanwhile during Sanders speech, he seemed extremely grateful to be able to go from zero name recognition in Iowa to a tie with one of the well known political candidates of our time. For some across the nation, the narrow margins from this Iowa caucus evoked memories from 2008 when Clinton, who was known as the presumed nominee, was beaten by then Senator Barack Obama. However, this cycle the Clinton campaign seems extremely eager to take this small margin over Sanders as an absolute win, most likely in the hopes that she will be able to continue to build momentum towards New Hampshire and the rest of the primary season. Sanders is not opposed to declaring victory either as this tie proves to those who doubted him that he can indeed put up a fight against Clinton and Wall Street.

But Monday night was not just about the men and women who were able to finish strong and continue their campaigns and hopes of receiving a party nomination. No, Monday night was also the end of the road for candidates who were simply not able to turn out the support that they had once dreamed of. Republican Governor Mike Huckabee ended his run for the White House on Monday evening as well as Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley. By Wednesday afternoon even more candidates dropped out of the race including Senator Rand Paul and Senator Rick Santorum who had actually won the Iowa Caucus four years ago. For each of these campaigns they never seemed to be able to gain enough momentum to produce a serious run for the presidency, but nevertheless, they tried their best.

Now it's on to New Hampshire, the first state in the country where the first primary votes will be cast for president and where unprecedented things will be bound to happen. Who will come out on top of the Republican field? Will Cruz maintain his lead? Will Trump win and prove that he can turn out the vote when necessary? Or will Rubio continue his upward climb and potentially upset the entire field? And of course we can't forget about the Democrats. With Sanders' home state of Vermont next door he is presumed to win New Hampshire with a large margin over Clinton. But with her slight victory from Iowa will she be able to close the gap on Sanders and possible even win the entire state? Get ready to find out, there's only 5 days to go!

Claims of the Candidates

Have you ever wondered how much of what a candidate says is actually true? Maybe you have when it seems as if some of the information they are talking about in their speeches or during a debate doesn't exactly make sense to you, but for the most part it doesn't occur to people to double check what politicians are saying. However, if you ever feel like what a candidate says isn't true, but you can't seem to find any news site telling you otherwise, try going to FactCheck.org. On this site you will be able to find articles and videos that tell you both what candidates have claimed to be true versus what was actually correct about their statements. Here's what I found on some of the major candidates:

Rand Paul:
Recently, the pro-Paul Super Political Action Committee or PAC, ran an ad that accuses Senator Ted Cruz of being a fake conservative using information from various Senate votes that Cruz participated in. During the ad a voiceover states how Cruz "voted to borrow billions and bust the budget" and how he "skipped the vote to audit the federal reserve." The ad then goes on to say how Rand Paul is the true fiscal conservative in the race and that he will work to "cut spending" and "balance the budget." What the ad doesn't point out is that the first spending vote referenced dealt with an amendment to the defense budget or that this amendment never actually passed but failed in a vote in March of 2015 32-68. The second incorrect information deals with the fact that Cruz skipped a Senate vote. While yes, he did skip the vote, it was because he was campaigning in New Hampshire; during an election year it is common for Senators to miss certain votes simply because it would be hard for them to be in Washington, D.C. and campaigning around the country to get as many votes as possible. FactCheck also goes on to examine Cruz's voting record along with Senator Paul's and comparing them among conservative groups including Club for Growth, the National Taxpayers Union, and the American Conservative Union, all of which A ratings, indicating that both these members of Congress are conservative, contrary to what this ad will have viewers believe. Click on the link below to read the entire article that I used when writing this post: http://www.factcheck.org/2016/01/cruzs-conservative-credentials/

Hillary Clinton:
On January 12, 2016, Chelsea Clinton, Hillary Clinton's daughter claimed that Senator Sanders wanted to "dismantle Obamacare, dismantle the chip program, dismantle Medicare, (and) dismantle private insurance." Clinton goes on to say that by "giving the Republicans, Democratic permission" to do such things that America will go back to a time when millions of people did not have health insurance before the Affordable Care Act was put into place. However, this is not true. Sanders intends to replace current insurance with a program called Medicare-for-All which would be paid for by new tax programs including increasing the amount of taxes wealthy Americans, those who make over $250,000 each year, would pay. Want to know exactly where I got this information? Click on the link below to watch FactCheck's video: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/22/politics/fact-check-trump-iran-clinton-health-care-tapper-origwx-pk/index.html

The State of The Campaigns

~To preface this post I need to say that the information I will be providing will be prior to the events and results of the Iowa Caucus on February 1, 2016 ~

By the end of January any candidate who dreams of taking over the White House by the end of the year has been constantly campaigning in the first two states of the election process for the past few weeks or even months. These are the states of Iowa which will be where the first votes of 2016 will be cast when they caucus on February 1st and New Hampshire which votes in the first primary on February 9th, just eight days after Iowa.

According to the CNN/ORC poll focusing on the Iowa Caucus on the Republican side the top five candidates are businessman Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Marco Rubio, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and Senator Ron Paul with Trump leading Cruz by 11 points. On the Democratic side Senator Bernie Sanders is leading the pack by 8 points over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Governor Martin O'Malley based on the same poll. With only a few days to go before the Iowa Caucus it will be interesting to see which candidates move up in the polls and which candidates loose momentum before the first test that there campaign faces.

Even before the new year started there have been many candidates who ended their bid before the contest truly started including Democrat Senator Jim Webb and Governor Lincoln Chafee and Republican Governor Scott Walker, Governor Rick Perry, Governor Bobby Jindal, and Senator Lindsey Graham. For the rest of the campaigns that are still in the running they have been gearing up by putting out more ads that focus on both what their campaigns offer and how they are the better option to become president than their opponents would be. Candidates in the lead such as Trump, Cruz, Clinton, and Sanders have been, and will continue to hold rallies, meet with their constituents and provide Iowans with the necessary information on how to get people to caucus in support of their candidacy.

Endorsements have also been growing for candidates from fellow politicians such as Sarah Palin who endorsed Donald Trump the other day and Evangelical Leaders who have been focusing their attention and resources towards the Rubio campaign. Yet as both the Iowa Caucus draws nearer with the New Hampshire primaries following shortly after, it will be interesting to see how candidates interact with each other, their constituents, and maybe even which candidates will drop out of the race.

Hello and Welcome to the 2016 election for President of the United States!

My name is Emma Cohen and I am a Political Science student at the State University of New York at Oneonta. As a political science student I am interested in the behind the scenes work that it takes to get someone elected and as an American I am interested in the future of my country. 

This February I have the opportunity to go to New Hampshire to witness history firsthand with one of my political science classes and attend events hosted by almost all of the major candidates for president. Along the way I plan to share my experiences through this blog and some general information about the election process in order to give people knowledge they might not have otherwise known.