On March 9th, both of the Democratic candidates took the stage at Miami Dade College in Florida for their eighth debate. It was just one day after Senator Bernie Sanders upset win over Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Primary. But while Sanders was able to eek out a win, Clinton was still able to gain a greater number of delegates that night, mostly from her large margin over Sanders in the Mississippi Primary. After all of the primaries prior to March 15th Clinton's delegate total is at 775 while Sanders has a total of 552.
From the beginning of this debate, the moderators immediately asked pressing questioning of the candidates, wasting no time in getting started. Clinton was asked where she failed with regards to her loss in the Michigan Primary and why she has started to sound more like the Democratic nomination is already hers rather than continue to battle for it in the primaries. She responded by saying that her campaign was focusing on her other wins from that night, not her one loss in Michigan, and that this entire process is a marathon where you need to look for positive solutions to get things done. As Sanders stated just a few minutes later when asked about how his delegate count was far less than Clinton's, he said that his win in the Michigan Primary could possibly be one of the greatest political upsets in modern times. This statement and many others throughout the debate from Sanders were aimed at convincing the American public that he is by no means out of the race for the Democratic nomination even though Clinton has begun to pander to a more general audience.
Pandering was also one of the next issues brought up by the moderators when discussing Clinton's stance on immigration. Had she been "His-pandering" when she changed her stance on illegal immigrants from stating that she was "adamantly against them" in a 2003 interview to today's stance where she plans on attacking immigration reform in her first 100 days in office? Clinton fired back saying that she had supported the Dreamer Act that was proposed to Congress in 2003 and in every Congress since then, as well as stating that she is a strong supported in immigration reform. Throughout the debate on immigration Clinton frequently brought up her record on various Senate votes that she had participated in during her time in Congress. She even attempted to discredit Senator Sanders stance on immigration when she mentioned that he had voted against the 2003 Dreamer Act whereas she had voted for it. Sanders was not taking the bait however and defended his vote on that bill as well explaining what he would do with immigration reform as President of the United States.
It was clear that Clinton was put on the defensive from the beginning of the debate as a way to test her and see how well she could hold up after a surprising loss in Michigan. Her strategy was to use her Senate voting record to show how she has been in favor of immigration reform for years as well as stating that she would build off of Obama's current plans if she were to be elected president. Another strategy was to attack Sanders in as many areas as she possibly could so she could call him out on anything he said that might appear out of line, a technique called "the spread" that many debate teams, use according to an article written by James Hohmann for the Washington Post. Hohmann's article had an educated critique of the debate in general and on Clinton's performance in particular which helped to put the Democratic race in perspective. While Clinton's debate performance seemed strong there was still room for improvement, especially when it comes to how her campaign strategy should evolve over the next few weeks. Sanders proved in this debate that he too was in the race for the long run and should not be overlooked by Clinton who was beginning to change her rhetoric to a wider base in the hopes that she could skip over the Democratic convention and go straight to November.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Super Tuesday
12 states.
7 candidates.
2 political parties.
595 Republican delegates at stake.*
865 Democratic delegates at stake.**
A political junkies dream.
After an entire day of voting in 2016 Presidential Election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two candidates who came out on top of their respective parties. Trump won a total of 234 delegates across a variety of states including Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia while Clinton won a total of 488 delegates across Texas, Georgia, and Massachusetts. But in order to get a better sense of how Super Tuesday went down, its best to separate each state by their delegate counts and how each party did overall.
Alabama
The Republicans: Trump led in Alabama leading up to Super Tuesday by around 15 points compared to his nearest competitor Marco Rubio with Ted Cruz coming in third in most polls. As expected Trump won 26 out of the 50 available delegates with Cruz coming in second with 13 and Rubio ending up in third place with 1.
The Democrats: According to the Monmouth poll, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 50 points, similar to her lead over Sanders in most Southern states. She won 44 of the states 53 delegates while Sanders earned 9.
Alaska
The Republicans: Little polling was done in Alaska before the primary took place because it was not a hotly contested state for the Republican candidates. However it proved beneficial to Cruz because he ended up winning the state and 12 of their 28 delegates with Trump picking up 11 despite his exciting endorsement from former governor Sarah Palin. Rubio also picked up 5 delegates.
Arkansas
The Republicans: For the top three Republican candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, polling showed that Arkansas would be one of the closer races of the night. This could be seen when all of the delegates were awarded with Trump winning and receiving 16, Cruz with 14, and Rubio with 9 out of 40 that were available for the candidates.
The Democrats: Clinton led in polling data over Sanders which was not surprising due to the fact that her husband Bill Clinton was a former governor of Arkansas as well as the state residing in the South where Clinton tends to outpace her opponent. At the end of the night she won 19 of the total 32 available delegates with Sanders taking 9 for himself.
Colorado
The Democrats: Prior to the primary, Quinnipiac had polls showing the Clinton would come out on top of Sanders to win the state. However, Sanders gained 35 of the states 66 delegates in comparison to the 24 which Clinton received, helping him win one of his four victories of the night.
Georgia
The Republicans: Georgia's polls showed that the Republican race was relatively close with Trump around 35 points, Rubio around 22, and Cruz around 18. At the end of the night Trump won the state with 40 of the 76 available delegates with Cruz taking second and 18 delegates, and Rubio rounding out the top three with 14 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton had a huge lead over Sanders in Georgia due to the makeup of the electorate being more diverse than previous states Sanders had won. And it was no exception that Clinton won and received 70 of the 102 available delegates while Sanders only picked up 28.
Massachusetts
The Republicans: Trump led the Republican field in Massachusetts, but as polls showed, Ohio governor John Kasich was consistently coming in third. By the end of the night Trump won, receiving 22 delegates out of 42 available with Kasich coming in second winning 8 delegates. Rubio also received 8 delegates while Cruz only picked up 4.
The Democrats: For the Democrats, Massachusetts was seen as a battleground state because of its location to Sanders home state of Vermont as well as polls that showed the two candidates were anywhere between 5 and 10 points away from each other. Though it looked like Sanders was going to come away with a win, Clinton ended up winning the state by a narrow margin along with 45 of the 91 available delegates; just two more than Sanders who received 43.
Minnesota
The Republicans: Minnesota is not known to be a battle ground state or even a state that most candidates are counting on unless they are from there or absolutely need to win. In Rubio's case it was the latter. This was the only state that Rubio won on Super Tuesday and helped him get 14 delegates compared to 13 for Cruz and just 10 for Trump. While Rubio's campaign was excited by his first win it was also the first time that Trump had finished third in a primary contest, something unknown to the GOP front runner.
The Democrats: Similar to Colorado, polls showed that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by a fair amount, but because Minnesota was not one of the battle ground states of the night newer polling had not taken place for some time. Sanders was able to pull off another win here and received 46 of the 77 delegates available while Clinton received just 28.
Oklahoma
The Republicans: Trump was shown to be leading Cruz in polls by a margin of about 10 points, but due to the fact that Oklahoma borders Cruz's home state of Texas it looked like it could be a close call. At the end of the night Cruz won and picked up 14 of the available 43 delegates followed by Trump with 12 and Rubio with 11.
The Democrats: Clinton and Sanders were also in a tight race with Sanders leading Clinton by 5 points. By the end of the night Sanders was victorious, earning 20 out of the available 38 delegates while Clinton received 16.
Tennessee
The Republicans: Trump again led the polls over Cruz and Rubio in Tennessee and ended up winning the night with 31 out of 58 available delegates followed by Cruz with 14 and Rubio with 9.
The Democrats: Again it was unsurprising to see Clinton leading Sanders in Tennessee by a 30 point margin as well as her winning the state and 41 delegates out of 67. Sanders also picked up 22 delegates.
Texas
The Republicans: As Texas is Cruz's home state, this was a crucial win for him. But polls leading up to the big day showed that Trump was not that far behind Cruz and could possibly overcome him and take the lead. In the end Cruz came out on top with the biggest single state delegate win of the night, picking up 99 of the 155 available delegates. Trump finished second with 33 and Rubio came in third with 3 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders by almost 30 points in the Texas primary and won this state as many expected her to. She picked up 138 of 222 delegates while Sanders picked up 61.
Vermont
The Republicans: Since very little polling data had come out of Vermont, and it wasn't a competitive race for anyone on the Republican side, it was expected that this would be yet another state for Trump to increase his delegate count. And it was. He received 6 of the state's 16 delegates while Kasich came in second once again to receive 6 delegates of his own.
The Democrats: Being the home state of Sanders it would have taken an act of God for Clinton to beat him here especially because he had led the polls since the beginning of the primary season. Vermont was probably Sanders biggest and most sentimental win of the race so far because he took home 16 delegates compared to Clinton's 0.
Virginia
The Republicans: Polls showed that the race for delegates here would be between Trump and Rubio with the possibility that Rubio could come out with an important win. And it looked like Rubio's dreams might come true when polls closed at the beginning of the night. But while Rubio was able to turn out voters in the Virginian suburbs of DC, Trump eventually won the state and 17 of their 49 delegates with Rubio coming in a close second with 16 delegates. Cruz finished in second picking up 8 delegates, Kasich with 5, and Ben Carson even picked up a few delegates here gaining 3 for his campaign.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders in Virginia as she had for weeks by a lead of about 20 points. She was able to keep that lead and take 61 of their 95 available delegates at the end of the night while Sanders picked up 32 for himself.
Overall, Super Tuesday went according to plan for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who won substantially in a variety of states across the country. But for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders it was a different story. For Cruz, who won 3 states he has the ability to continue in the race for quite some time. As his campaign has begun to say, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who has actually beaten Trump in a primary and caucus. With this fact on his side he could possibly stay in the race until the convention in July in the hopes that he could spoil Trump and take the nomination away from him. Rubio meanwhile has a harder decision to make. After winning only one state, Minnesota, and placing third in almost every contest where he was able to break the required threshold, it is looking like Rubio will drop out of the race soon if there are not drastic changes made. Rubio will most likely hold out until his home state Florida votes on March 15th in the hopes that he will win and be able to reinvigorate his campaign. Kasich seems to be in the same boat as Rubio. While he came in second in two states he did not win any outright. This means that he will also be holding out hope that he can win his home state of Ohio on March 15th and campaign as the establishment candidate of the Republican party, someone who more moderates and conservatives might think about voting for instead of Trump or Cruz. But wait, there's one more Republican candidate to discuss! Dr. Ben Carson who received just 4 delegates at the end of the night. With no hope of continuing a successful campaign, Carson dropped out of the race just days after Super Tuesday.
And let's not forget about the other Democratic hopeful, Bernie Sanders. While Sanders was not able to get quite the amount of delegates that he was hoping for on Super Tuesday he did come away with a substantial amount and a substantial amount of momentum looking forward in the race. When comparing the pledged delegates of both Sanders and Clinton the picture looks even better for Sanders because they are relatively close in number. But what Sanders needs to improve upon is the number of Super Delegates he can get to support him. Super delegates are elected Democrat officials or other significant members of the party whose votes weighs more than the traditional delegates of the party; and almost all of them support Clinton. If Sanders wants to continue to inspire a political revolution he needs to work on gaining as many Super Delegates as he can, like Barack Obama did in 2008, as well on increase the diversity in his voting electorate.
As a whole Super Tuesday turned out to be what political pollsters and pundits were expecting. No surprise margins of error in their polls to cause an unknown candidate to win. No serious scandals were revealed about any candidate. No controversial drop outs. But this is just the beginning of the official voting cycle for the next President of the United States. Who knows what the next 34 contests will bring.
* According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes Colorado and Wyoming's delegates because these states are holding caucus' and not primaries
** According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes the 150 Super Delegates which have the ability to change there pledge until the Democratic Convention in July
7 candidates.
2 political parties.
595 Republican delegates at stake.*
865 Democratic delegates at stake.**
A political junkies dream.
After an entire day of voting in 2016 Presidential Election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two candidates who came out on top of their respective parties. Trump won a total of 234 delegates across a variety of states including Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia while Clinton won a total of 488 delegates across Texas, Georgia, and Massachusetts. But in order to get a better sense of how Super Tuesday went down, its best to separate each state by their delegate counts and how each party did overall.
Alabama
The Republicans: Trump led in Alabama leading up to Super Tuesday by around 15 points compared to his nearest competitor Marco Rubio with Ted Cruz coming in third in most polls. As expected Trump won 26 out of the 50 available delegates with Cruz coming in second with 13 and Rubio ending up in third place with 1.
The Democrats: According to the Monmouth poll, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 50 points, similar to her lead over Sanders in most Southern states. She won 44 of the states 53 delegates while Sanders earned 9.
Alaska
The Republicans: Little polling was done in Alaska before the primary took place because it was not a hotly contested state for the Republican candidates. However it proved beneficial to Cruz because he ended up winning the state and 12 of their 28 delegates with Trump picking up 11 despite his exciting endorsement from former governor Sarah Palin. Rubio also picked up 5 delegates.
Arkansas
The Republicans: For the top three Republican candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, polling showed that Arkansas would be one of the closer races of the night. This could be seen when all of the delegates were awarded with Trump winning and receiving 16, Cruz with 14, and Rubio with 9 out of 40 that were available for the candidates.
The Democrats: Clinton led in polling data over Sanders which was not surprising due to the fact that her husband Bill Clinton was a former governor of Arkansas as well as the state residing in the South where Clinton tends to outpace her opponent. At the end of the night she won 19 of the total 32 available delegates with Sanders taking 9 for himself.
Colorado
The Democrats: Prior to the primary, Quinnipiac had polls showing the Clinton would come out on top of Sanders to win the state. However, Sanders gained 35 of the states 66 delegates in comparison to the 24 which Clinton received, helping him win one of his four victories of the night.
Georgia
The Republicans: Georgia's polls showed that the Republican race was relatively close with Trump around 35 points, Rubio around 22, and Cruz around 18. At the end of the night Trump won the state with 40 of the 76 available delegates with Cruz taking second and 18 delegates, and Rubio rounding out the top three with 14 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton had a huge lead over Sanders in Georgia due to the makeup of the electorate being more diverse than previous states Sanders had won. And it was no exception that Clinton won and received 70 of the 102 available delegates while Sanders only picked up 28.
Massachusetts
The Republicans: Trump led the Republican field in Massachusetts, but as polls showed, Ohio governor John Kasich was consistently coming in third. By the end of the night Trump won, receiving 22 delegates out of 42 available with Kasich coming in second winning 8 delegates. Rubio also received 8 delegates while Cruz only picked up 4.
The Democrats: For the Democrats, Massachusetts was seen as a battleground state because of its location to Sanders home state of Vermont as well as polls that showed the two candidates were anywhere between 5 and 10 points away from each other. Though it looked like Sanders was going to come away with a win, Clinton ended up winning the state by a narrow margin along with 45 of the 91 available delegates; just two more than Sanders who received 43.
Minnesota
The Republicans: Minnesota is not known to be a battle ground state or even a state that most candidates are counting on unless they are from there or absolutely need to win. In Rubio's case it was the latter. This was the only state that Rubio won on Super Tuesday and helped him get 14 delegates compared to 13 for Cruz and just 10 for Trump. While Rubio's campaign was excited by his first win it was also the first time that Trump had finished third in a primary contest, something unknown to the GOP front runner.
The Democrats: Similar to Colorado, polls showed that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by a fair amount, but because Minnesota was not one of the battle ground states of the night newer polling had not taken place for some time. Sanders was able to pull off another win here and received 46 of the 77 delegates available while Clinton received just 28.
Oklahoma
The Republicans: Trump was shown to be leading Cruz in polls by a margin of about 10 points, but due to the fact that Oklahoma borders Cruz's home state of Texas it looked like it could be a close call. At the end of the night Cruz won and picked up 14 of the available 43 delegates followed by Trump with 12 and Rubio with 11.
The Democrats: Clinton and Sanders were also in a tight race with Sanders leading Clinton by 5 points. By the end of the night Sanders was victorious, earning 20 out of the available 38 delegates while Clinton received 16.
Tennessee
The Republicans: Trump again led the polls over Cruz and Rubio in Tennessee and ended up winning the night with 31 out of 58 available delegates followed by Cruz with 14 and Rubio with 9.
The Democrats: Again it was unsurprising to see Clinton leading Sanders in Tennessee by a 30 point margin as well as her winning the state and 41 delegates out of 67. Sanders also picked up 22 delegates.
Texas
The Republicans: As Texas is Cruz's home state, this was a crucial win for him. But polls leading up to the big day showed that Trump was not that far behind Cruz and could possibly overcome him and take the lead. In the end Cruz came out on top with the biggest single state delegate win of the night, picking up 99 of the 155 available delegates. Trump finished second with 33 and Rubio came in third with 3 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders by almost 30 points in the Texas primary and won this state as many expected her to. She picked up 138 of 222 delegates while Sanders picked up 61.
Vermont
The Republicans: Since very little polling data had come out of Vermont, and it wasn't a competitive race for anyone on the Republican side, it was expected that this would be yet another state for Trump to increase his delegate count. And it was. He received 6 of the state's 16 delegates while Kasich came in second once again to receive 6 delegates of his own.
The Democrats: Being the home state of Sanders it would have taken an act of God for Clinton to beat him here especially because he had led the polls since the beginning of the primary season. Vermont was probably Sanders biggest and most sentimental win of the race so far because he took home 16 delegates compared to Clinton's 0.
Virginia
The Republicans: Polls showed that the race for delegates here would be between Trump and Rubio with the possibility that Rubio could come out with an important win. And it looked like Rubio's dreams might come true when polls closed at the beginning of the night. But while Rubio was able to turn out voters in the Virginian suburbs of DC, Trump eventually won the state and 17 of their 49 delegates with Rubio coming in a close second with 16 delegates. Cruz finished in second picking up 8 delegates, Kasich with 5, and Ben Carson even picked up a few delegates here gaining 3 for his campaign.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders in Virginia as she had for weeks by a lead of about 20 points. She was able to keep that lead and take 61 of their 95 available delegates at the end of the night while Sanders picked up 32 for himself.
Overall, Super Tuesday went according to plan for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who won substantially in a variety of states across the country. But for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders it was a different story. For Cruz, who won 3 states he has the ability to continue in the race for quite some time. As his campaign has begun to say, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who has actually beaten Trump in a primary and caucus. With this fact on his side he could possibly stay in the race until the convention in July in the hopes that he could spoil Trump and take the nomination away from him. Rubio meanwhile has a harder decision to make. After winning only one state, Minnesota, and placing third in almost every contest where he was able to break the required threshold, it is looking like Rubio will drop out of the race soon if there are not drastic changes made. Rubio will most likely hold out until his home state Florida votes on March 15th in the hopes that he will win and be able to reinvigorate his campaign. Kasich seems to be in the same boat as Rubio. While he came in second in two states he did not win any outright. This means that he will also be holding out hope that he can win his home state of Ohio on March 15th and campaign as the establishment candidate of the Republican party, someone who more moderates and conservatives might think about voting for instead of Trump or Cruz. But wait, there's one more Republican candidate to discuss! Dr. Ben Carson who received just 4 delegates at the end of the night. With no hope of continuing a successful campaign, Carson dropped out of the race just days after Super Tuesday.
And let's not forget about the other Democratic hopeful, Bernie Sanders. While Sanders was not able to get quite the amount of delegates that he was hoping for on Super Tuesday he did come away with a substantial amount and a substantial amount of momentum looking forward in the race. When comparing the pledged delegates of both Sanders and Clinton the picture looks even better for Sanders because they are relatively close in number. But what Sanders needs to improve upon is the number of Super Delegates he can get to support him. Super delegates are elected Democrat officials or other significant members of the party whose votes weighs more than the traditional delegates of the party; and almost all of them support Clinton. If Sanders wants to continue to inspire a political revolution he needs to work on gaining as many Super Delegates as he can, like Barack Obama did in 2008, as well on increase the diversity in his voting electorate.
As a whole Super Tuesday turned out to be what political pollsters and pundits were expecting. No surprise margins of error in their polls to cause an unknown candidate to win. No serious scandals were revealed about any candidate. No controversial drop outs. But this is just the beginning of the official voting cycle for the next President of the United States. Who knows what the next 34 contests will bring.
* According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes Colorado and Wyoming's delegates because these states are holding caucus' and not primaries
** According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes the 150 Super Delegates which have the ability to change there pledge until the Democratic Convention in July
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Hillary Clinton's Performance and Media Framing of Forum Results 2/18/2016
On February 28th MSNBC hosted a town hall event for the Democratic candidates for president former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders. This town hall was moderated by Chuck Todd and Jose Diaz-Balart both of whom are well known political journalists and have their own political commentary shows on MSNBC.
Unlike other Democratic debates that have occurred so far in the election cycle, this town hall was set up in a way that the candidates took a few questions from the moderators at the beginning of the night followed by questions from the audience for the remainder of the time. Senator Sanders went first and was asked a variety of questions ranging from immigration reform, his ideas on feminism, and his plans to raise the minimum wage over the next 15 years. It was unclear how this town hall would receive Sanders due to his recent image in the media being portrayed as a "single issue candidate." From the beginning Sanders denied that he was a single issues candidate and by the end of the night was able to close Clinton's national lead in the polls from 25 points in the middle of January to just 11 points in the middle of February according to NBC News.
But for a majority of media outlets, Clinton was the main focus of the night. After a double digit loss to Sanders in New Hampshire, the country was eager to see how she would perform. And perform she did. Clinton was precise and almost eager to answer as many questions as she could in a relatively honest, basic manner. When asked about the Supreme Court appointment being considered after the recent death of Antonin Scalia she said that Congress needs to do their Constitutional duty and let the process of nominating someone occur in a timely manner. When talking about this issue, Clinton acknowledged Senator Harry Reid from Nevada and multiple other Congressmen throughout the night. It seemed that this tactic was a way for Clinton to show that she has had experience working with Congress and that she would be able to do so successfully if she were to be elected president.
Clinton also stated that "like many Americans, I have evolved...in my views" when asked about gay marriage and immigration reform. These statements from Clinton were a way to depict her evolution as a politician and associate her with other like minded Americans. In an implicit way Clinton seemed to appeal to voters that have changed their minds on issues from the past to show that she has human characteristics just like everyone else and is more than the disconnected candidate the media has portrayed her as. Because Clinton was predicted to come back from her New Hampshire upset and perform well in Nevada and South Carolina, this town hall was a way for her campaign to reset themselves and begin to look at the larger election.
Unlike other Democratic debates that have occurred so far in the election cycle, this town hall was set up in a way that the candidates took a few questions from the moderators at the beginning of the night followed by questions from the audience for the remainder of the time. Senator Sanders went first and was asked a variety of questions ranging from immigration reform, his ideas on feminism, and his plans to raise the minimum wage over the next 15 years. It was unclear how this town hall would receive Sanders due to his recent image in the media being portrayed as a "single issue candidate." From the beginning Sanders denied that he was a single issues candidate and by the end of the night was able to close Clinton's national lead in the polls from 25 points in the middle of January to just 11 points in the middle of February according to NBC News.
But for a majority of media outlets, Clinton was the main focus of the night. After a double digit loss to Sanders in New Hampshire, the country was eager to see how she would perform. And perform she did. Clinton was precise and almost eager to answer as many questions as she could in a relatively honest, basic manner. When asked about the Supreme Court appointment being considered after the recent death of Antonin Scalia she said that Congress needs to do their Constitutional duty and let the process of nominating someone occur in a timely manner. When talking about this issue, Clinton acknowledged Senator Harry Reid from Nevada and multiple other Congressmen throughout the night. It seemed that this tactic was a way for Clinton to show that she has had experience working with Congress and that she would be able to do so successfully if she were to be elected president.
Clinton also stated that "like many Americans, I have evolved...in my views" when asked about gay marriage and immigration reform. These statements from Clinton were a way to depict her evolution as a politician and associate her with other like minded Americans. In an implicit way Clinton seemed to appeal to voters that have changed their minds on issues from the past to show that she has human characteristics just like everyone else and is more than the disconnected candidate the media has portrayed her as. Because Clinton was predicted to come back from her New Hampshire upset and perform well in Nevada and South Carolina, this town hall was a way for her campaign to reset themselves and begin to look at the larger election.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Hillary Clinton's Performance in Nevada
After a double digit loss to Senator Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire almost two weeks before the Nevada Democratic Caucus, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was looking for a resurgence in her campaign. As the grassroots idealism of the Sanders campaign grew, Clinton's campaign was forced to take a step back and evaluate how her campaign needed to move forward towards the next vote. Based on exit polls received from Nevada it was clear that Clinton did a much better job than Sanders in regards to winning a diverse electorate. Voters that were women, voters that were over the age of 45, voters that were African American, voters that were registered Democrats, and voters that were also union workers, voted for Clinton more often than they voted for Sanders according to CBS News. However, Clinton was not able to gain an advantage with Hispanic voters or voters under the age of 45; Sanders continues to crush Clinton with this percentage. Yet Clinton seemed perfectly fine with this.
In her victory speech, Clinton focused on thanking her supporters both in Nevada and around the country for all of the hard work and donations that they have contributed to her campaign. She promised to "break down every barrier that holds you back" and went after the Sanders campaign stating that "we aren't a single issue country...we need more than a plan for the big banks, the middle class needs a raise." These cracks at the Sanders campaign were not the primary theme in Clinton's speech, but were instead used to highlight issues from her traditional stump speech. With the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday rounding out the first month of official campaigning, Clinton is starting to focus on the general election in November rather than every primary between now and the convention.
Though she needs to find a way to excite young voters, particularly women, she continues to dominate the national media over Sanders. After winning three of the first four contests in the 2016 presidential election cycle, the media is realizing that Clinton still has the power to take the Democratic Nomination in July even with the growing momentum of the Sanders campaign. As the race begins to head South, the media is predicting that Clinton will dominate in almost every contest, especially during Super Tuesday. It seemed as if the media knew Clinton would win Nevada by a reasonable margin that they immediately shifted their attention to her national campaign strategies as soon as she was declared the winner in Nevada. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is ahead in almost every poll ranging from the Carolinas, to Michigan, to Illinois. It is clear that the media is predicting a large margin of victory in regards to pledged delegates to Clinton on Super Tuesday, but there is still the possibility that Sanders could have some surprise wins in the Northeast in Massachusetts and his home state of Vermont.
In her victory speech, Clinton focused on thanking her supporters both in Nevada and around the country for all of the hard work and donations that they have contributed to her campaign. She promised to "break down every barrier that holds you back" and went after the Sanders campaign stating that "we aren't a single issue country...we need more than a plan for the big banks, the middle class needs a raise." These cracks at the Sanders campaign were not the primary theme in Clinton's speech, but were instead used to highlight issues from her traditional stump speech. With the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday rounding out the first month of official campaigning, Clinton is starting to focus on the general election in November rather than every primary between now and the convention.
Though she needs to find a way to excite young voters, particularly women, she continues to dominate the national media over Sanders. After winning three of the first four contests in the 2016 presidential election cycle, the media is realizing that Clinton still has the power to take the Democratic Nomination in July even with the growing momentum of the Sanders campaign. As the race begins to head South, the media is predicting that Clinton will dominate in almost every contest, especially during Super Tuesday. It seemed as if the media knew Clinton would win Nevada by a reasonable margin that they immediately shifted their attention to her national campaign strategies as soon as she was declared the winner in Nevada. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is ahead in almost every poll ranging from the Carolinas, to Michigan, to Illinois. It is clear that the media is predicting a large margin of victory in regards to pledged delegates to Clinton on Super Tuesday, but there is still the possibility that Sanders could have some surprise wins in the Northeast in Massachusetts and his home state of Vermont.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Jeb! Bush
As most of America had expected for the last few weeks, Jeb Bush ended his bid for the presidency on Saturday night after he finished fourth with just 7.8% of the vote. Though his campaign never seemed to have a real chance, Bush persevered for months trying everything he could to gain people's votes. In honor of him, The Huffington Post created an article entitled "The Top 10 Most Jeb! Moments of the 2016 Race", and because it was every bit as amazing as you think its going to be I decided to share it here on my blog. Enjoy!
Tactics and Results of Nevada and South Carolina
On Saturday February 20th the third and fourth contests of the 2016 Presidential Election took place in both South Carolina and Nevada. South Carolina, the first state in the south to vote, held a primary for the Republican field of candidates. Donald Trump came out on top winning all of the state's 50 delegates with 32.5% of the votes while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz essentially tied for second place with 22.5% and 22.3% of the vote respectively. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all came in a distant fourth, fifth, and sixth place all receiving around 7% of the vote. By the end of the night it was clear that Donald Trump, after winning two of the three first contests in this election cycle, was a force to be reckoned with. Though he refrains from using any form of political correctness this tactic has worked well for him for months because he is able to tap into the anger that most middle class Americans have been feeling towards the establishment in Washington. But will the momentum Trump seems to have last until the Republican National Convention in July? Or will one of the more establishment candidates like Rubio or Kasich be able to win enough delegates during Super Tuesday and over the next few months to dump the Trump?
Speaking of establishment candidates Jeb Bush finally dropped out of the race for president this past Saturday. With almost no support in polls nationwide and no delegates won, it was only a matter of time before Bush ended his bid. In the last few weeks Jeb tried every possible strategy to try to gain any support that he could. He tried adding an exclamation point on his campaign slogan and bringing his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, and his brother, former President George W. Bush, on the campaign trail with him. Unfortunately, Bush's campaign was almost doomed from the start. From his announcement, Bush never made it clear exactly what his platform would be throughout the campaign or what he wanted to accomplish if he was successful with his run for the White House. Plus, history was never on his side. Not only was Jeb the third Bush to run for president, but he chose to run in an election when outsider candidates have dominated the political field and made it almost impossible for establishment candidates to get any substantial support. Now that Bush has declared defeat, it is up to Marco Rubio and John Kasich to fight for the title of being the establishment candidate, the one who could possibly defeat Trump over the next few weeks as well as gain as much support as they can from Bush's supporters and super PACs.
Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.
But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come.
Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.
But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come.
Sunday, February 14, 2016
The Democratic Debate February 11, 2016
On Thursday night, just two days after the New Hampshire primary, Democratic candidates Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took the stage for their sixth presidential debate, on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, hosted by PBS News Hour and Facebook. Before this debate began, there was speculation circulating on how Clinton would do after her 22-point loss to Sanders in the New Hampshire primary. Would she remain calm during the debate and subtly make up for the votes she couldn't get in New Hampshire or would she come out blazing with a need to succeed?
It turns out Clinton used both implicit and explicit tactics to show she has what it takes to become America's next president. She took to the stage in seemingly ready to go with an opening statement that focused on breaking down all of the barriers that are in the way of the American people who are just trying to get ahead. Sanders' opening statement was similar to a point; instead he focused more on the idea that just 9 months ago he was a virtually unknown candidate and now he has been able to insight a political revolution against the establishment of the Democratic Party. The first part of the debate focused on how each candidate saw the role of the federal government in everyday Americans lives. Sanders at first did not answer this question directly but rather danced around it saying that he wanted to guarantee health care, public education, and good infrastructure, essentially implying that the federal government would grow under his presidency. Clinton meanwhile explicitly stated that under her administration the federal government would increase in size by about 40%. She also agreed with Sanders goal to guarantee health care to Americans, but didn't understand why there needed to be another health care debate in the country and why the plan that he proposes doesn't seem to add up monetarily. She instead proposed that we continue on the path that the Affordable Care Act provides, a fight she said she has been fighting since it was called "Hillarycare." The debate continued with questions surrounding Social Security, homeland security, and immigration, all important issues that both Sanders and Clinton spent time discussing their plans to solve in much more detail than it seems the Republicans tend to do when they debate.
However, some of the moments that stood out to the media were not when Clinton or Sanders described their differences on immigration or how they want to fix the growing issue of Social Security, but how each candidate conducted themselves during the debate. In a world where the 30-second soundbite could be the most news an American gets during the day, candidates must be perfectly poised 24/7 so they can get the most appealing shot on replay. To some, like myself, Clinton appeared confident and knowledgeable about the issues at hand while other such as the prominent conservative newspaper The National Review thought otherwise. They thought Clinton had a "sleepy showing" and that "she tried to trip up Sanders with detailed policy answers...but caught in a defensive crouch and struggling to explain her own campaign's shortcomings, she never really found the opening she needed." In comparison, The National Review painted Sanders as a winner whenever he said something that could criticize Clinton or put her on the defensive such as immigration reform or her ties to Wall Street with phrasing such as "he showed up" and the idea that he was "forcefully" answering questions. By using specific language the media has the ability to influence voters by describing a candidate either in a flattering or unflattering light.
Another point that the media tends to focus on, specifically when talking about the Democratic race for president, is the gender difference between Clinton and Sanders. Clinton was asked during the debate why such a large percentage of female voters were turning out in support of her opponent Sanders, rather than her. In my opinion she responded with one of the best answers I have heard when listening to a political debate on gender. Clinton essentially said that just because you are a female, that doesn't mean that it is necessary for you to vote for me, the female candidate. She instead said that women have the right to choose who they want to vote for based on their own ideals and directed the conversation to one focused on raising the standard of equality for women in this country. This answer was a refreshing break from the notion that all women must vote for Hillary Clinton based on their gender and a relatively good response to the quote from Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright who said that "there's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other."
Overall, Thursday's Democratic Debate appeared to be much more substantive than the Republican Debates have been in recent weeks. Perhaps that's due to the candidates who appear on stage, but I think that it also has to do with the media that surrounds each parties presidential nominees. Clinton was portrayed as the De facto nominee and given free media attention for months before Sanders and his grassroots momentum grew into a national campaign gaining their own media attention, that for both candidates tends to appear slightly more professional than that of the Republicans. In contrast, the Republicans tend to be portrayed as a bit of a circus with multiple clowns running around stage at any given time. So as a student of political science I have a challenge from you: read news articles that go against what you normally believe. Try to dig deep and figure out how much of what the candidates say is really true by using sources such as FactCheck.org. This is something I plan on doing for the remainder of this presidential debate because to be an informed voting citizen you need to gather actual information from reputable sites, not just what the biased media outlets repeat every hour.
It turns out Clinton used both implicit and explicit tactics to show she has what it takes to become America's next president. She took to the stage in seemingly ready to go with an opening statement that focused on breaking down all of the barriers that are in the way of the American people who are just trying to get ahead. Sanders' opening statement was similar to a point; instead he focused more on the idea that just 9 months ago he was a virtually unknown candidate and now he has been able to insight a political revolution against the establishment of the Democratic Party. The first part of the debate focused on how each candidate saw the role of the federal government in everyday Americans lives. Sanders at first did not answer this question directly but rather danced around it saying that he wanted to guarantee health care, public education, and good infrastructure, essentially implying that the federal government would grow under his presidency. Clinton meanwhile explicitly stated that under her administration the federal government would increase in size by about 40%. She also agreed with Sanders goal to guarantee health care to Americans, but didn't understand why there needed to be another health care debate in the country and why the plan that he proposes doesn't seem to add up monetarily. She instead proposed that we continue on the path that the Affordable Care Act provides, a fight she said she has been fighting since it was called "Hillarycare." The debate continued with questions surrounding Social Security, homeland security, and immigration, all important issues that both Sanders and Clinton spent time discussing their plans to solve in much more detail than it seems the Republicans tend to do when they debate.
However, some of the moments that stood out to the media were not when Clinton or Sanders described their differences on immigration or how they want to fix the growing issue of Social Security, but how each candidate conducted themselves during the debate. In a world where the 30-second soundbite could be the most news an American gets during the day, candidates must be perfectly poised 24/7 so they can get the most appealing shot on replay. To some, like myself, Clinton appeared confident and knowledgeable about the issues at hand while other such as the prominent conservative newspaper The National Review thought otherwise. They thought Clinton had a "sleepy showing" and that "she tried to trip up Sanders with detailed policy answers...but caught in a defensive crouch and struggling to explain her own campaign's shortcomings, she never really found the opening she needed." In comparison, The National Review painted Sanders as a winner whenever he said something that could criticize Clinton or put her on the defensive such as immigration reform or her ties to Wall Street with phrasing such as "he showed up" and the idea that he was "forcefully" answering questions. By using specific language the media has the ability to influence voters by describing a candidate either in a flattering or unflattering light.
Another point that the media tends to focus on, specifically when talking about the Democratic race for president, is the gender difference between Clinton and Sanders. Clinton was asked during the debate why such a large percentage of female voters were turning out in support of her opponent Sanders, rather than her. In my opinion she responded with one of the best answers I have heard when listening to a political debate on gender. Clinton essentially said that just because you are a female, that doesn't mean that it is necessary for you to vote for me, the female candidate. She instead said that women have the right to choose who they want to vote for based on their own ideals and directed the conversation to one focused on raising the standard of equality for women in this country. This answer was a refreshing break from the notion that all women must vote for Hillary Clinton based on their gender and a relatively good response to the quote from Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright who said that "there's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other."
Overall, Thursday's Democratic Debate appeared to be much more substantive than the Republican Debates have been in recent weeks. Perhaps that's due to the candidates who appear on stage, but I think that it also has to do with the media that surrounds each parties presidential nominees. Clinton was portrayed as the De facto nominee and given free media attention for months before Sanders and his grassroots momentum grew into a national campaign gaining their own media attention, that for both candidates tends to appear slightly more professional than that of the Republicans. In contrast, the Republicans tend to be portrayed as a bit of a circus with multiple clowns running around stage at any given time. So as a student of political science I have a challenge from you: read news articles that go against what you normally believe. Try to dig deep and figure out how much of what the candidates say is really true by using sources such as FactCheck.org. This is something I plan on doing for the remainder of this presidential debate because to be an informed voting citizen you need to gather actual information from reputable sites, not just what the biased media outlets repeat every hour.
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