Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Hillary Clinton's Univision Debate Performance

On March 9th, both of the Democratic candidates took the stage at Miami Dade College in Florida for their eighth debate. It was just one day after Senator Bernie Sanders upset win over Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Primary. But while Sanders was able to eek out a win, Clinton was still able to gain a greater number of delegates that night, mostly from her large margin over Sanders in the Mississippi Primary. After all of the primaries prior to March 15th Clinton's delegate total is at 775 while Sanders has a total of 552.

From the beginning of this debate, the moderators immediately asked pressing questioning of the candidates, wasting no time in getting started. Clinton was asked where she failed with regards to her loss in the Michigan Primary and why she has started to sound more like the Democratic nomination is already hers rather than continue to battle for it in the primaries. She responded by saying that her campaign was focusing on her other wins from that night, not her one loss in Michigan, and that this entire process is a marathon where you need to look for positive solutions to get things done. As Sanders stated just a few minutes later when asked about how his delegate count was far less than Clinton's, he said that his win in the Michigan Primary could possibly be one of the greatest political upsets in modern times. This statement and many others throughout the debate from Sanders were aimed at convincing the American public that he is by no means out of the race for the Democratic nomination even though Clinton has begun to pander to a more general audience.

Pandering was also one of the next issues brought up by the moderators when discussing Clinton's stance on immigration. Had she been "His-pandering" when she changed her stance on illegal immigrants from stating that she was "adamantly against them" in a 2003 interview to today's stance where she plans on attacking immigration reform in her first 100 days in office? Clinton fired back saying that she had supported the Dreamer Act that was proposed to Congress in 2003 and in every Congress since then, as well as stating that she is a strong supported in immigration reform. Throughout the debate on immigration Clinton frequently brought up her record on various Senate votes that she had participated in during her time in Congress. She even attempted to discredit Senator Sanders stance on immigration when she mentioned that he had voted against the 2003 Dreamer Act whereas she had voted for it. Sanders was not taking the bait however and defended his vote on that bill as well explaining what he would do with immigration reform as President of the United States.

It was clear that Clinton was put on the defensive from the beginning of the debate as a way to test her and see how well she could hold up after a surprising loss in Michigan. Her strategy was to use her Senate voting record to show how she has been in favor of immigration reform for years as well as stating that she would build off of Obama's current plans if she were to be elected president. Another strategy was to attack Sanders in as many areas as she possibly could so she could call him out on anything he said that might appear out of line, a technique called "the spread" that many debate teams, use according to an article written by James Hohmann for the Washington Post. Hohmann's article had an educated critique of the debate in general and on Clinton's performance in particular which helped to put the Democratic race in perspective. While Clinton's debate performance seemed strong there was still room for improvement, especially when it comes to how her campaign strategy should evolve over the next few weeks. Sanders proved in this debate that he too was in the race for the long run and should not be overlooked by Clinton who was beginning to change her rhetoric to a wider base in the hopes that she could skip over the Democratic convention and go straight to November.

Super Tuesday

12 states.
7 candidates.
2 political parties.
595 Republican delegates at stake.*
865 Democratic delegates at stake.**
A political junkies dream.

After an entire day of voting in 2016 Presidential Election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two candidates who came out on top of their respective parties. Trump won a total of 234 delegates across a variety of states including Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia while Clinton won a total of 488 delegates across Texas, Georgia, and Massachusetts. But in order to get a better sense of how Super Tuesday went down, its best to separate each state by their delegate counts and how each party did overall.

Alabama
The Republicans: Trump led in Alabama leading up to Super Tuesday by around 15 points compared to his nearest competitor Marco Rubio with Ted Cruz coming in third in most polls. As expected Trump won 26 out of the 50 available delegates with Cruz coming in second with 13 and Rubio ending up in third place with 1.
The Democrats: According to the Monmouth poll, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 50 points, similar to her lead over Sanders in most Southern states. She won 44 of the states 53 delegates while Sanders earned 9.

Alaska
The Republicans: Little polling was done in Alaska before the primary took place because it was not a hotly contested state for the Republican candidates. However it proved beneficial to Cruz because he ended up winning the state and 12 of their 28 delegates with Trump picking up 11 despite his exciting endorsement from former governor Sarah Palin. Rubio also picked up 5 delegates.

Arkansas
The Republicans: For the top three Republican candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, polling showed that Arkansas would be one of the closer races of the night. This could be seen when all of the delegates were awarded with Trump winning and receiving 16, Cruz with 14, and Rubio with 9 out of 40 that were available for the candidates.
The Democrats: Clinton led in polling data over Sanders which was not surprising due to the fact that her husband Bill Clinton was a former governor of Arkansas as well as the state residing in the South where Clinton tends to outpace her opponent. At the end of the night she won 19 of the total 32 available delegates with Sanders taking 9 for himself.

Colorado
The Democrats: Prior to the primary, Quinnipiac had polls showing the Clinton would come out on top of Sanders to win the state. However, Sanders gained 35 of the states 66 delegates in comparison to the 24 which Clinton received, helping him win one of his four victories of the night.

Georgia
The Republicans: Georgia's polls showed that the Republican race was relatively close with Trump around 35 points, Rubio around 22, and Cruz around 18. At the end of the night Trump won the state with 40 of the 76 available delegates with Cruz taking second and 18 delegates, and Rubio rounding out the top three with 14 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton had a huge lead over Sanders in Georgia due to the makeup of the electorate being more diverse than previous states Sanders had won. And it was no exception that Clinton won and received 70 of the 102 available delegates while Sanders only picked up 28.

Massachusetts
The Republicans: Trump led the Republican field in Massachusetts, but as polls showed, Ohio governor John Kasich was consistently coming in third. By the end of the night Trump won, receiving 22 delegates out of 42 available with Kasich coming in second winning 8 delegates. Rubio also received 8 delegates while Cruz only picked up 4.
The Democrats: For the Democrats, Massachusetts was seen as a battleground state because of its location to Sanders home state of Vermont as well as polls that showed the two candidates were anywhere between 5 and 10 points away from each other. Though it looked like Sanders was going to come away with a win, Clinton ended up winning the state by a narrow margin along with 45 of the 91 available delegates; just two more than Sanders who received 43.

Minnesota
The Republicans: Minnesota is not known to be a battle ground state or even a state that most candidates are counting on unless they are from there or absolutely need to win. In Rubio's case it was the latter. This was the only state that Rubio won on Super Tuesday and helped him get 14 delegates compared to 13 for Cruz and just 10 for Trump. While Rubio's campaign was excited by his first win it was also the first time that Trump had finished third in a primary contest, something unknown to the GOP front runner.
The Democrats: Similar to Colorado, polls showed that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by a fair amount, but because Minnesota was not one of the battle ground states of the night newer polling had not taken place for some time. Sanders was able to pull off another win here and received 46 of the 77 delegates available while Clinton received just 28.

Oklahoma
The Republicans: Trump was shown to be leading Cruz in polls by a margin of about 10 points, but due to the fact that Oklahoma borders Cruz's home state of Texas it looked like it could be a close call.  At the end of the night Cruz won and picked up 14 of the available 43 delegates followed by Trump with 12 and Rubio with 11.
The Democrats: Clinton and Sanders were also in a tight race with Sanders leading Clinton by 5 points. By the end of the night Sanders was victorious, earning 20 out of the available 38 delegates while Clinton received 16.

Tennessee
The Republicans: Trump again led the polls over Cruz and Rubio in Tennessee and ended up winning the night with 31 out of 58 available delegates followed by Cruz with 14 and Rubio with 9.
The Democrats: Again it was unsurprising to see Clinton leading Sanders in Tennessee by a 30 point margin as well as her winning the state and 41 delegates out of 67. Sanders also picked up 22 delegates.

Texas 
The Republicans: As Texas is Cruz's home state, this was a crucial win for him. But polls leading up to the big day showed that Trump was not that far behind Cruz and could possibly overcome him and take the lead. In the end Cruz came out on top with the biggest single state delegate win of the night, picking up 99 of the 155 available delegates. Trump finished second with 33 and Rubio came in third with 3 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders by almost 30 points in the Texas primary and won this state as many expected her to. She picked up 138 of 222 delegates while Sanders picked up 61.

Vermont 
The Republicans: Since very little polling data had come out of Vermont, and it wasn't a competitive race for anyone on the Republican side, it was expected that this would be yet another state for Trump to increase his delegate count. And it was. He received 6 of the state's 16 delegates while Kasich came in second once again to receive 6 delegates of his own.
The Democrats: Being the home state of Sanders it would have taken an act of God for Clinton to beat him here especially because he had led the polls since the beginning of the primary season. Vermont was probably Sanders biggest and most sentimental win of the race so far because he took home 16 delegates compared to Clinton's 0.

Virginia
The Republicans: Polls showed that the race for delegates here would be between Trump and Rubio with the possibility that Rubio could come out with an important win. And it looked like Rubio's dreams might come true when polls closed at the beginning of the night. But while Rubio was able to turn out voters in the Virginian suburbs of DC, Trump eventually won the state and 17 of their 49 delegates with Rubio coming in a close second with 16 delegates. Cruz finished in second picking up 8 delegates, Kasich with 5, and Ben Carson even picked up a few delegates here gaining 3 for his campaign.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders in Virginia as she had for weeks by a lead of about 20 points. She was able to keep that lead and take 61  of their 95 available delegates at the end of the night while Sanders picked up 32 for himself.

Overall, Super Tuesday went according to plan for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who won substantially in a variety of states across the country. But for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders it was a different story. For Cruz, who won 3 states he has the ability to continue in the race for quite some time. As his campaign has begun to say, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who has actually beaten Trump in a primary and caucus. With this fact on his side he could possibly stay in the race until the convention in July in the hopes that he could spoil Trump and take the nomination away from him. Rubio meanwhile has a harder decision to make. After winning only one state, Minnesota, and placing third in almost every contest where he was able to break the required threshold, it is looking like Rubio will drop out of the race soon if there are not drastic changes made. Rubio will most likely hold out until his home state Florida votes on March 15th in the hopes that he will win and be able to reinvigorate his campaign. Kasich seems to be in the same boat as Rubio. While he came in second in two states he did not win any outright. This means that he will also be holding out hope that he can win his home state of Ohio on March 15th and campaign as the establishment candidate of the Republican party, someone who more moderates and conservatives might think about voting for instead of Trump or Cruz. But wait, there's one more Republican candidate to discuss! Dr. Ben Carson who received just 4 delegates at the end of the night. With no hope of continuing a successful campaign, Carson dropped out of the race just days after Super Tuesday.

And let's not forget about the other Democratic hopeful, Bernie Sanders. While Sanders was not able to get quite the amount of delegates that he was hoping for on Super Tuesday he did come away with a substantial amount and a substantial amount of momentum looking forward in the race. When comparing the pledged delegates of both Sanders and Clinton the picture looks even better for Sanders because they are relatively close in number. But what Sanders needs to improve upon is the number of Super Delegates he can get to support him. Super delegates are elected Democrat officials or other significant members of the party whose votes weighs more than the traditional delegates of the party; and almost all of them support Clinton. If Sanders wants to continue to inspire a political revolution he needs to work on gaining as many Super Delegates as he can, like Barack Obama did in 2008, as well on increase the diversity in his voting electorate.

As a whole Super Tuesday turned out to be what political pollsters and pundits were expecting. No surprise margins of error in their polls to cause an unknown candidate to win. No serious scandals were revealed about any candidate. No controversial drop outs. But this is just the beginning of the official voting cycle for the next President of the United States. Who knows what the next 34 contests will bring.


* According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes Colorado and Wyoming's delegates because these states are holding caucus' and not primaries
** According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes the 150 Super Delegates which have the ability to change there pledge until the Democratic Convention in July

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Hillary Clinton's Performance and Media Framing of Forum Results 2/18/2016

On February 28th MSNBC hosted a town hall event for the Democratic candidates for president former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders. This town hall was moderated by Chuck Todd and Jose Diaz-Balart both of whom are well known political journalists and have their own political commentary shows on MSNBC.

Unlike other Democratic debates that have occurred so far in the election cycle, this town hall was set up in a way that the candidates took a few questions from the moderators at the beginning of the night followed by questions from the audience for the remainder of the time. Senator Sanders went first and was asked a variety of questions ranging from immigration reform, his ideas on feminism, and his plans to raise the minimum wage over the next 15 years. It was unclear how this town hall would receive Sanders due to his recent image in the media being portrayed as a "single issue candidate." From the beginning Sanders denied that he was a single issues candidate and by the end of the night was able to close Clinton's national lead in the polls from 25 points in the middle of January to just 11 points in the middle of February according to NBC News.

But for a majority of media outlets, Clinton was the main focus of the night. After a double digit loss to Sanders in New Hampshire, the country was eager to see how she would perform. And perform she did. Clinton was precise and almost eager to answer as many questions as she could in a relatively honest, basic manner. When asked about the Supreme Court appointment being considered after the recent death of Antonin Scalia she said that Congress needs to do their Constitutional duty and let the process of nominating someone occur in a timely manner. When talking about this issue, Clinton acknowledged Senator Harry Reid from Nevada and multiple other Congressmen throughout the night. It seemed that this tactic was a way for Clinton to show that she has had experience working with Congress and that she would be able to do so successfully if she were to be elected president.

Clinton also stated that "like many Americans, I have evolved...in my views" when asked about gay marriage and immigration reform. These statements from Clinton were a way to depict her evolution as a politician and associate her with other like minded Americans. In an implicit way Clinton seemed to appeal to voters that have changed their minds on issues from the past to show that she has human characteristics just like everyone else and is more than the disconnected candidate the media has portrayed her as. Because Clinton was predicted to come back from her New Hampshire upset and perform well in Nevada and South Carolina, this town hall was a way for her campaign to reset themselves and begin to look at the larger election.