It's been almost three months since the first presidential primary votes were cast in Iowa and New Hampshire and millions of people across the country have cast their votes for who they think should be the next President of the United States. The field of candidates has narrowed from almost 20 contenders at the start of the year to just 5 candidates between the two parties: Businessman Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, Governor John Kasich, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders. As the party conventions and the general election draw near, candidates will begin to think about the strategies they will need to use in order to win the White House. Because of the traditional demographics that make up each respective party the strategies that candidates use will vary significantly, especially depending on the platform that they have created throughout the election so far. Since I have been following the Democratic Primary, specifically Hillary Clinton, throughout this primary season here are my top five strategy suggestions for her, or Bernie Sanders, for the general election.
1. Focus on the Issues
The point of elections, especially for the presidency, are more than publicly beating up on your opponents and seeing who is leading in the polls, although that is what the media tends to focus on with their "horse-race politics." The issues that candidates talk about on the campaign trail are often the policies that they will try to pass as legislation once they are elected President, so it is important for the Democratic Candidate to clearly state their views on the salient issues of this election. That means stating their stance on income inequality, immigration, gun control, women's rights, LGBT rights, and the economy. These issues have become the most debated topics of this year's election on the Democratic side and are the one's that the American people care about the most thanks to candidates like Sanders and Trump who focus solely on some of these issues at times. Not only would the Democratic Nominee need to talk about their opinions on these issues, but their opinions need to align with the Democratic Party's overall platform as well so that elections held at the state and local level can build off of what the national candidates are doing. Focusing on the issues also helps voters distinguish between the two parties and know which candidates would work on fixing areas that concern them the most.
2. Work on Image and Leadership Qualities
With the New York State Primary held earlier this week, the issue of leadership was a frequent topic of debate among the Democratic Candidates. Accusations that Sanders said Clinton was not qualified to be President of the United States not only hurts that candidate specifically, but the party in general. In comparison to the Republican Party Primaries this year, the Democratic ones have been extremely peaceful and polite and this atmosphere cannot change if the Democrats hope to win the general election in November. Whoever becomes the Democratic Nominee will need to focus on their record of experience and how that will prepare them for the White House whether that is the time they have spent in the Senate or time as the Secreatary of State. The Democratic Nominee will also need to work on their image and potentially continue the image that President Obama has created for the party as one that helps people who are disadvantaged get the rights that they deserve.
3. Unite the Party
Though the Democratic Party has appeared to be more presidential at times than the Republican Party, there is still a certain amount of division within the party. As with any race, supporters of particular candidates are often loyal to their candidate and have a hard time switching their support if their candidate does not win the nomination. However, a scenario where Sanders supports refuse to support Clinton as the nominee or vice versa could be detrimental to the party and potentially lose the White House to whoever the Republican Nominee turns out to be. In order to unite the party to defeat the Republicans, the Democratic Nominee will need to help fund raise for other candidates running on the Democratic ticket at both the local and state level and make appearances for these candidates at various campaign events. This would help create unity because it would show that all of the Democratic candidates have similar views on the issues and make everyone in the party feel like they are important and that their concerns were being heard.
4. Strengthen the Coalition
Every political party has a specific coalition that they depend on during elections to vote for their candidates. On the Democratic side their coalition, or base, consists of minorities including African Americans and Hispanics, younger voters, people who tend not to associate with a specific religion, members of the LGBT community, and people who live on the East or West coasts of the country. By focusing on issues that members of these communities care about such as immigration reform, decreasing the economic inequality among classes, and creating affordable college, the Democratic Nominee will know that on the first Tuesday in November when these groups go vote that they will be voting Democratic. However, the Democratic Nominee cannot depend solely on these people to win the election for them. The nominee will have to broaden their message to a certain degree so that Independents or other undecided voters will consider voting for the Democratic candidate rather than the Republican one.
5. Us vs. Them Mentality
Due to the extremely polarized political world that we currently live in, it is necessary for the Democratic Nominee to play into this mindset of Us vs. Them in order to win the general election. This strategy can work better than it may have in previous election cycles because this year's elections have seem some very nontraditional candidates on the Republican side. By exploiting these characteristics that show how unqualified and disrespectful some of the Republican candidates have been, it could show voters that the Democratic Nominee is much more qualified and trustful to be the next president than the Republican Nominee could ever be. However, the way in which the Democratic Nominee creates this image cannot be extremely explicit. Instead they would need to show their qualifications through campaign ads, speeches, and endorsements rather than simply stating that the Republicans are bad and the Democrats are good because this type of speech could backfire on the Democrats and make them seem greedy more than anything else.
Showing posts with label John Kasich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Kasich. Show all posts
Friday, April 22, 2016
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Cadidate Standings in Terms of Delegates and Polls
After 33 primaries and caucuses in the 2016 Presidential Election, the race to the nomination is more than halfway done. Leading on the Republican side is Donald Trump with 743 delegates, followed by Ted Cruz with 517, and John Kasich with 143. On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 1,749 while Bernie Sanders has 1,061 delegates. With just 882 delegates left for the Republicans to distribute and 1,955 delegates for the Democrats, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding who the nominees will be for each party.
On the Republican side, the nominee must claim 1,237 delegates in order to win on the first ballot. While Trump has been the front runner for most of the race, it is unclear whether he will reach the 1,237 benchmark before the nominating convention in July. As more candidates on the Republican side have dropped out, support for Cruz has increased and so has the number of delegates he has been receiving. Cruz now has the possibility to unseat Trump and claim the nomination for himself if he continues to gain momentum as the last few states vote in the primaries. Cruz's commanding win in Wisconsin on Tuesday showed that he has the capability to handily defeat Trump; in fact, he is the only candidate who has repeatedly been able to do this. Polls from Real Clear Politics show that Trump is beating Cruz by just 5 points nationwide 40% to 35% respectively, while Kasich is in a distant third with 20% (McClatchy/Marist). Kasich has not given up hope on the possibility that he could be the next Republican nominee however. If neither Trump nor Cruz have reached the 1,237 delegates by the convention, Kasich could have the opportunity to win the nomination after the first round of voting at the convention. Though Trump, Cruz, and other leaders in the Republican party have called for Kasich to resign from the race, he continues to stay in, most likely as to counter their extreme ideologies to his more traditional, moderate ones.
On the Democratic side, the nominating process has also stayed competitive long after many political pundits thought it would. Sanders has been able to rise from an unknown candidate to one of the most prominent political figures in just 11 months after announcing his bid for the presidency. While it seemed that Clinton would easily defeat Sanders in the first few races, she has not been able to compete with the amount of grassroots support that young Americans have been showing Sanders. The most recent poll from McClatchy/Marist shows that Sanders is leading Clinton by 2 points, 49% to 47%, respectively. However, other polls show that Clinton is still leading the race over Sanders, anywhere from 6 points to 18 points ahead (Pew Research, Public Policy Polling). While the tightening of polls increases the confidence of Sanders supporters, it is still highly unlikely that he will be able to gain the Democratic nomination before the convention. He trails Clinton by almost 700 delegates with 400 or so of those delegates being Super Delegates. These Super Delegates are leaders of the Democratic party and include representatives from Congress who are likely to continue to support Clinton because she is the establishment candidate on the Democratic side. For Sanders to convince these Super Delegates to shift their support from Clinton he would need a win from a major Democratic state such as New York, which could potentially happen, to show these Super Delegates he has what it takes to win.
Looking forward to the end of the Presidential Primary season it is incredible to see how much has changed since the first votes were cast in Iowa in February. Both fields of candidates have been narrowed down considerably, though it is still unclear who each party's nominee will be. While Trump and Clinton still hold leads over their rivals, the commanding lead they once had has almost evaporated. Polls are ever changing and known to inaccurately predict winners, like Sanders victory in Michigan in March, so they must be carefully analyzed and taken with a grain of salt as the campaigns march forward to the conventions and general election.
On the Republican side, the nominee must claim 1,237 delegates in order to win on the first ballot. While Trump has been the front runner for most of the race, it is unclear whether he will reach the 1,237 benchmark before the nominating convention in July. As more candidates on the Republican side have dropped out, support for Cruz has increased and so has the number of delegates he has been receiving. Cruz now has the possibility to unseat Trump and claim the nomination for himself if he continues to gain momentum as the last few states vote in the primaries. Cruz's commanding win in Wisconsin on Tuesday showed that he has the capability to handily defeat Trump; in fact, he is the only candidate who has repeatedly been able to do this. Polls from Real Clear Politics show that Trump is beating Cruz by just 5 points nationwide 40% to 35% respectively, while Kasich is in a distant third with 20% (McClatchy/Marist). Kasich has not given up hope on the possibility that he could be the next Republican nominee however. If neither Trump nor Cruz have reached the 1,237 delegates by the convention, Kasich could have the opportunity to win the nomination after the first round of voting at the convention. Though Trump, Cruz, and other leaders in the Republican party have called for Kasich to resign from the race, he continues to stay in, most likely as to counter their extreme ideologies to his more traditional, moderate ones.
On the Democratic side, the nominating process has also stayed competitive long after many political pundits thought it would. Sanders has been able to rise from an unknown candidate to one of the most prominent political figures in just 11 months after announcing his bid for the presidency. While it seemed that Clinton would easily defeat Sanders in the first few races, she has not been able to compete with the amount of grassroots support that young Americans have been showing Sanders. The most recent poll from McClatchy/Marist shows that Sanders is leading Clinton by 2 points, 49% to 47%, respectively. However, other polls show that Clinton is still leading the race over Sanders, anywhere from 6 points to 18 points ahead (Pew Research, Public Policy Polling). While the tightening of polls increases the confidence of Sanders supporters, it is still highly unlikely that he will be able to gain the Democratic nomination before the convention. He trails Clinton by almost 700 delegates with 400 or so of those delegates being Super Delegates. These Super Delegates are leaders of the Democratic party and include representatives from Congress who are likely to continue to support Clinton because she is the establishment candidate on the Democratic side. For Sanders to convince these Super Delegates to shift their support from Clinton he would need a win from a major Democratic state such as New York, which could potentially happen, to show these Super Delegates he has what it takes to win.
Looking forward to the end of the Presidential Primary season it is incredible to see how much has changed since the first votes were cast in Iowa in February. Both fields of candidates have been narrowed down considerably, though it is still unclear who each party's nominee will be. While Trump and Clinton still hold leads over their rivals, the commanding lead they once had has almost evaporated. Polls are ever changing and known to inaccurately predict winners, like Sanders victory in Michigan in March, so they must be carefully analyzed and taken with a grain of salt as the campaigns march forward to the conventions and general election.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Super Tuesday
12 states.
7 candidates.
2 political parties.
595 Republican delegates at stake.*
865 Democratic delegates at stake.**
A political junkies dream.
After an entire day of voting in 2016 Presidential Election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two candidates who came out on top of their respective parties. Trump won a total of 234 delegates across a variety of states including Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia while Clinton won a total of 488 delegates across Texas, Georgia, and Massachusetts. But in order to get a better sense of how Super Tuesday went down, its best to separate each state by their delegate counts and how each party did overall.
Alabama
The Republicans: Trump led in Alabama leading up to Super Tuesday by around 15 points compared to his nearest competitor Marco Rubio with Ted Cruz coming in third in most polls. As expected Trump won 26 out of the 50 available delegates with Cruz coming in second with 13 and Rubio ending up in third place with 1.
The Democrats: According to the Monmouth poll, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 50 points, similar to her lead over Sanders in most Southern states. She won 44 of the states 53 delegates while Sanders earned 9.
Alaska
The Republicans: Little polling was done in Alaska before the primary took place because it was not a hotly contested state for the Republican candidates. However it proved beneficial to Cruz because he ended up winning the state and 12 of their 28 delegates with Trump picking up 11 despite his exciting endorsement from former governor Sarah Palin. Rubio also picked up 5 delegates.
Arkansas
The Republicans: For the top three Republican candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, polling showed that Arkansas would be one of the closer races of the night. This could be seen when all of the delegates were awarded with Trump winning and receiving 16, Cruz with 14, and Rubio with 9 out of 40 that were available for the candidates.
The Democrats: Clinton led in polling data over Sanders which was not surprising due to the fact that her husband Bill Clinton was a former governor of Arkansas as well as the state residing in the South where Clinton tends to outpace her opponent. At the end of the night she won 19 of the total 32 available delegates with Sanders taking 9 for himself.
Colorado
The Democrats: Prior to the primary, Quinnipiac had polls showing the Clinton would come out on top of Sanders to win the state. However, Sanders gained 35 of the states 66 delegates in comparison to the 24 which Clinton received, helping him win one of his four victories of the night.
Georgia
The Republicans: Georgia's polls showed that the Republican race was relatively close with Trump around 35 points, Rubio around 22, and Cruz around 18. At the end of the night Trump won the state with 40 of the 76 available delegates with Cruz taking second and 18 delegates, and Rubio rounding out the top three with 14 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton had a huge lead over Sanders in Georgia due to the makeup of the electorate being more diverse than previous states Sanders had won. And it was no exception that Clinton won and received 70 of the 102 available delegates while Sanders only picked up 28.
Massachusetts
The Republicans: Trump led the Republican field in Massachusetts, but as polls showed, Ohio governor John Kasich was consistently coming in third. By the end of the night Trump won, receiving 22 delegates out of 42 available with Kasich coming in second winning 8 delegates. Rubio also received 8 delegates while Cruz only picked up 4.
The Democrats: For the Democrats, Massachusetts was seen as a battleground state because of its location to Sanders home state of Vermont as well as polls that showed the two candidates were anywhere between 5 and 10 points away from each other. Though it looked like Sanders was going to come away with a win, Clinton ended up winning the state by a narrow margin along with 45 of the 91 available delegates; just two more than Sanders who received 43.
Minnesota
The Republicans: Minnesota is not known to be a battle ground state or even a state that most candidates are counting on unless they are from there or absolutely need to win. In Rubio's case it was the latter. This was the only state that Rubio won on Super Tuesday and helped him get 14 delegates compared to 13 for Cruz and just 10 for Trump. While Rubio's campaign was excited by his first win it was also the first time that Trump had finished third in a primary contest, something unknown to the GOP front runner.
The Democrats: Similar to Colorado, polls showed that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by a fair amount, but because Minnesota was not one of the battle ground states of the night newer polling had not taken place for some time. Sanders was able to pull off another win here and received 46 of the 77 delegates available while Clinton received just 28.
Oklahoma
The Republicans: Trump was shown to be leading Cruz in polls by a margin of about 10 points, but due to the fact that Oklahoma borders Cruz's home state of Texas it looked like it could be a close call. At the end of the night Cruz won and picked up 14 of the available 43 delegates followed by Trump with 12 and Rubio with 11.
The Democrats: Clinton and Sanders were also in a tight race with Sanders leading Clinton by 5 points. By the end of the night Sanders was victorious, earning 20 out of the available 38 delegates while Clinton received 16.
Tennessee
The Republicans: Trump again led the polls over Cruz and Rubio in Tennessee and ended up winning the night with 31 out of 58 available delegates followed by Cruz with 14 and Rubio with 9.
The Democrats: Again it was unsurprising to see Clinton leading Sanders in Tennessee by a 30 point margin as well as her winning the state and 41 delegates out of 67. Sanders also picked up 22 delegates.
Texas
The Republicans: As Texas is Cruz's home state, this was a crucial win for him. But polls leading up to the big day showed that Trump was not that far behind Cruz and could possibly overcome him and take the lead. In the end Cruz came out on top with the biggest single state delegate win of the night, picking up 99 of the 155 available delegates. Trump finished second with 33 and Rubio came in third with 3 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders by almost 30 points in the Texas primary and won this state as many expected her to. She picked up 138 of 222 delegates while Sanders picked up 61.
Vermont
The Republicans: Since very little polling data had come out of Vermont, and it wasn't a competitive race for anyone on the Republican side, it was expected that this would be yet another state for Trump to increase his delegate count. And it was. He received 6 of the state's 16 delegates while Kasich came in second once again to receive 6 delegates of his own.
The Democrats: Being the home state of Sanders it would have taken an act of God for Clinton to beat him here especially because he had led the polls since the beginning of the primary season. Vermont was probably Sanders biggest and most sentimental win of the race so far because he took home 16 delegates compared to Clinton's 0.
Virginia
The Republicans: Polls showed that the race for delegates here would be between Trump and Rubio with the possibility that Rubio could come out with an important win. And it looked like Rubio's dreams might come true when polls closed at the beginning of the night. But while Rubio was able to turn out voters in the Virginian suburbs of DC, Trump eventually won the state and 17 of their 49 delegates with Rubio coming in a close second with 16 delegates. Cruz finished in second picking up 8 delegates, Kasich with 5, and Ben Carson even picked up a few delegates here gaining 3 for his campaign.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders in Virginia as she had for weeks by a lead of about 20 points. She was able to keep that lead and take 61 of their 95 available delegates at the end of the night while Sanders picked up 32 for himself.
Overall, Super Tuesday went according to plan for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who won substantially in a variety of states across the country. But for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders it was a different story. For Cruz, who won 3 states he has the ability to continue in the race for quite some time. As his campaign has begun to say, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who has actually beaten Trump in a primary and caucus. With this fact on his side he could possibly stay in the race until the convention in July in the hopes that he could spoil Trump and take the nomination away from him. Rubio meanwhile has a harder decision to make. After winning only one state, Minnesota, and placing third in almost every contest where he was able to break the required threshold, it is looking like Rubio will drop out of the race soon if there are not drastic changes made. Rubio will most likely hold out until his home state Florida votes on March 15th in the hopes that he will win and be able to reinvigorate his campaign. Kasich seems to be in the same boat as Rubio. While he came in second in two states he did not win any outright. This means that he will also be holding out hope that he can win his home state of Ohio on March 15th and campaign as the establishment candidate of the Republican party, someone who more moderates and conservatives might think about voting for instead of Trump or Cruz. But wait, there's one more Republican candidate to discuss! Dr. Ben Carson who received just 4 delegates at the end of the night. With no hope of continuing a successful campaign, Carson dropped out of the race just days after Super Tuesday.
And let's not forget about the other Democratic hopeful, Bernie Sanders. While Sanders was not able to get quite the amount of delegates that he was hoping for on Super Tuesday he did come away with a substantial amount and a substantial amount of momentum looking forward in the race. When comparing the pledged delegates of both Sanders and Clinton the picture looks even better for Sanders because they are relatively close in number. But what Sanders needs to improve upon is the number of Super Delegates he can get to support him. Super delegates are elected Democrat officials or other significant members of the party whose votes weighs more than the traditional delegates of the party; and almost all of them support Clinton. If Sanders wants to continue to inspire a political revolution he needs to work on gaining as many Super Delegates as he can, like Barack Obama did in 2008, as well on increase the diversity in his voting electorate.
As a whole Super Tuesday turned out to be what political pollsters and pundits were expecting. No surprise margins of error in their polls to cause an unknown candidate to win. No serious scandals were revealed about any candidate. No controversial drop outs. But this is just the beginning of the official voting cycle for the next President of the United States. Who knows what the next 34 contests will bring.
* According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes Colorado and Wyoming's delegates because these states are holding caucus' and not primaries
** According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes the 150 Super Delegates which have the ability to change there pledge until the Democratic Convention in July
7 candidates.
2 political parties.
595 Republican delegates at stake.*
865 Democratic delegates at stake.**
A political junkies dream.
After an entire day of voting in 2016 Presidential Election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two candidates who came out on top of their respective parties. Trump won a total of 234 delegates across a variety of states including Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia while Clinton won a total of 488 delegates across Texas, Georgia, and Massachusetts. But in order to get a better sense of how Super Tuesday went down, its best to separate each state by their delegate counts and how each party did overall.
Alabama
The Republicans: Trump led in Alabama leading up to Super Tuesday by around 15 points compared to his nearest competitor Marco Rubio with Ted Cruz coming in third in most polls. As expected Trump won 26 out of the 50 available delegates with Cruz coming in second with 13 and Rubio ending up in third place with 1.
The Democrats: According to the Monmouth poll, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 50 points, similar to her lead over Sanders in most Southern states. She won 44 of the states 53 delegates while Sanders earned 9.
Alaska
The Republicans: Little polling was done in Alaska before the primary took place because it was not a hotly contested state for the Republican candidates. However it proved beneficial to Cruz because he ended up winning the state and 12 of their 28 delegates with Trump picking up 11 despite his exciting endorsement from former governor Sarah Palin. Rubio also picked up 5 delegates.
Arkansas
The Republicans: For the top three Republican candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, polling showed that Arkansas would be one of the closer races of the night. This could be seen when all of the delegates were awarded with Trump winning and receiving 16, Cruz with 14, and Rubio with 9 out of 40 that were available for the candidates.
The Democrats: Clinton led in polling data over Sanders which was not surprising due to the fact that her husband Bill Clinton was a former governor of Arkansas as well as the state residing in the South where Clinton tends to outpace her opponent. At the end of the night she won 19 of the total 32 available delegates with Sanders taking 9 for himself.
Colorado
The Democrats: Prior to the primary, Quinnipiac had polls showing the Clinton would come out on top of Sanders to win the state. However, Sanders gained 35 of the states 66 delegates in comparison to the 24 which Clinton received, helping him win one of his four victories of the night.
Georgia
The Republicans: Georgia's polls showed that the Republican race was relatively close with Trump around 35 points, Rubio around 22, and Cruz around 18. At the end of the night Trump won the state with 40 of the 76 available delegates with Cruz taking second and 18 delegates, and Rubio rounding out the top three with 14 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton had a huge lead over Sanders in Georgia due to the makeup of the electorate being more diverse than previous states Sanders had won. And it was no exception that Clinton won and received 70 of the 102 available delegates while Sanders only picked up 28.
Massachusetts
The Republicans: Trump led the Republican field in Massachusetts, but as polls showed, Ohio governor John Kasich was consistently coming in third. By the end of the night Trump won, receiving 22 delegates out of 42 available with Kasich coming in second winning 8 delegates. Rubio also received 8 delegates while Cruz only picked up 4.
The Democrats: For the Democrats, Massachusetts was seen as a battleground state because of its location to Sanders home state of Vermont as well as polls that showed the two candidates were anywhere between 5 and 10 points away from each other. Though it looked like Sanders was going to come away with a win, Clinton ended up winning the state by a narrow margin along with 45 of the 91 available delegates; just two more than Sanders who received 43.
Minnesota
The Republicans: Minnesota is not known to be a battle ground state or even a state that most candidates are counting on unless they are from there or absolutely need to win. In Rubio's case it was the latter. This was the only state that Rubio won on Super Tuesday and helped him get 14 delegates compared to 13 for Cruz and just 10 for Trump. While Rubio's campaign was excited by his first win it was also the first time that Trump had finished third in a primary contest, something unknown to the GOP front runner.
The Democrats: Similar to Colorado, polls showed that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by a fair amount, but because Minnesota was not one of the battle ground states of the night newer polling had not taken place for some time. Sanders was able to pull off another win here and received 46 of the 77 delegates available while Clinton received just 28.
Oklahoma
The Republicans: Trump was shown to be leading Cruz in polls by a margin of about 10 points, but due to the fact that Oklahoma borders Cruz's home state of Texas it looked like it could be a close call. At the end of the night Cruz won and picked up 14 of the available 43 delegates followed by Trump with 12 and Rubio with 11.
The Democrats: Clinton and Sanders were also in a tight race with Sanders leading Clinton by 5 points. By the end of the night Sanders was victorious, earning 20 out of the available 38 delegates while Clinton received 16.
Tennessee
The Republicans: Trump again led the polls over Cruz and Rubio in Tennessee and ended up winning the night with 31 out of 58 available delegates followed by Cruz with 14 and Rubio with 9.
The Democrats: Again it was unsurprising to see Clinton leading Sanders in Tennessee by a 30 point margin as well as her winning the state and 41 delegates out of 67. Sanders also picked up 22 delegates.
Texas
The Republicans: As Texas is Cruz's home state, this was a crucial win for him. But polls leading up to the big day showed that Trump was not that far behind Cruz and could possibly overcome him and take the lead. In the end Cruz came out on top with the biggest single state delegate win of the night, picking up 99 of the 155 available delegates. Trump finished second with 33 and Rubio came in third with 3 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders by almost 30 points in the Texas primary and won this state as many expected her to. She picked up 138 of 222 delegates while Sanders picked up 61.
Vermont
The Republicans: Since very little polling data had come out of Vermont, and it wasn't a competitive race for anyone on the Republican side, it was expected that this would be yet another state for Trump to increase his delegate count. And it was. He received 6 of the state's 16 delegates while Kasich came in second once again to receive 6 delegates of his own.
The Democrats: Being the home state of Sanders it would have taken an act of God for Clinton to beat him here especially because he had led the polls since the beginning of the primary season. Vermont was probably Sanders biggest and most sentimental win of the race so far because he took home 16 delegates compared to Clinton's 0.
Virginia
The Republicans: Polls showed that the race for delegates here would be between Trump and Rubio with the possibility that Rubio could come out with an important win. And it looked like Rubio's dreams might come true when polls closed at the beginning of the night. But while Rubio was able to turn out voters in the Virginian suburbs of DC, Trump eventually won the state and 17 of their 49 delegates with Rubio coming in a close second with 16 delegates. Cruz finished in second picking up 8 delegates, Kasich with 5, and Ben Carson even picked up a few delegates here gaining 3 for his campaign.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders in Virginia as she had for weeks by a lead of about 20 points. She was able to keep that lead and take 61 of their 95 available delegates at the end of the night while Sanders picked up 32 for himself.
Overall, Super Tuesday went according to plan for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who won substantially in a variety of states across the country. But for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders it was a different story. For Cruz, who won 3 states he has the ability to continue in the race for quite some time. As his campaign has begun to say, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who has actually beaten Trump in a primary and caucus. With this fact on his side he could possibly stay in the race until the convention in July in the hopes that he could spoil Trump and take the nomination away from him. Rubio meanwhile has a harder decision to make. After winning only one state, Minnesota, and placing third in almost every contest where he was able to break the required threshold, it is looking like Rubio will drop out of the race soon if there are not drastic changes made. Rubio will most likely hold out until his home state Florida votes on March 15th in the hopes that he will win and be able to reinvigorate his campaign. Kasich seems to be in the same boat as Rubio. While he came in second in two states he did not win any outright. This means that he will also be holding out hope that he can win his home state of Ohio on March 15th and campaign as the establishment candidate of the Republican party, someone who more moderates and conservatives might think about voting for instead of Trump or Cruz. But wait, there's one more Republican candidate to discuss! Dr. Ben Carson who received just 4 delegates at the end of the night. With no hope of continuing a successful campaign, Carson dropped out of the race just days after Super Tuesday.
And let's not forget about the other Democratic hopeful, Bernie Sanders. While Sanders was not able to get quite the amount of delegates that he was hoping for on Super Tuesday he did come away with a substantial amount and a substantial amount of momentum looking forward in the race. When comparing the pledged delegates of both Sanders and Clinton the picture looks even better for Sanders because they are relatively close in number. But what Sanders needs to improve upon is the number of Super Delegates he can get to support him. Super delegates are elected Democrat officials or other significant members of the party whose votes weighs more than the traditional delegates of the party; and almost all of them support Clinton. If Sanders wants to continue to inspire a political revolution he needs to work on gaining as many Super Delegates as he can, like Barack Obama did in 2008, as well on increase the diversity in his voting electorate.
As a whole Super Tuesday turned out to be what political pollsters and pundits were expecting. No surprise margins of error in their polls to cause an unknown candidate to win. No serious scandals were revealed about any candidate. No controversial drop outs. But this is just the beginning of the official voting cycle for the next President of the United States. Who knows what the next 34 contests will bring.
* According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes Colorado and Wyoming's delegates because these states are holding caucus' and not primaries
** According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes the 150 Super Delegates which have the ability to change there pledge until the Democratic Convention in July
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Tactics and Results of Nevada and South Carolina
On Saturday February 20th the third and fourth contests of the 2016 Presidential Election took place in both South Carolina and Nevada. South Carolina, the first state in the south to vote, held a primary for the Republican field of candidates. Donald Trump came out on top winning all of the state's 50 delegates with 32.5% of the votes while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz essentially tied for second place with 22.5% and 22.3% of the vote respectively. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all came in a distant fourth, fifth, and sixth place all receiving around 7% of the vote. By the end of the night it was clear that Donald Trump, after winning two of the three first contests in this election cycle, was a force to be reckoned with. Though he refrains from using any form of political correctness this tactic has worked well for him for months because he is able to tap into the anger that most middle class Americans have been feeling towards the establishment in Washington. But will the momentum Trump seems to have last until the Republican National Convention in July? Or will one of the more establishment candidates like Rubio or Kasich be able to win enough delegates during Super Tuesday and over the next few months to dump the Trump?
Speaking of establishment candidates Jeb Bush finally dropped out of the race for president this past Saturday. With almost no support in polls nationwide and no delegates won, it was only a matter of time before Bush ended his bid. In the last few weeks Jeb tried every possible strategy to try to gain any support that he could. He tried adding an exclamation point on his campaign slogan and bringing his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, and his brother, former President George W. Bush, on the campaign trail with him. Unfortunately, Bush's campaign was almost doomed from the start. From his announcement, Bush never made it clear exactly what his platform would be throughout the campaign or what he wanted to accomplish if he was successful with his run for the White House. Plus, history was never on his side. Not only was Jeb the third Bush to run for president, but he chose to run in an election when outsider candidates have dominated the political field and made it almost impossible for establishment candidates to get any substantial support. Now that Bush has declared defeat, it is up to Marco Rubio and John Kasich to fight for the title of being the establishment candidate, the one who could possibly defeat Trump over the next few weeks as well as gain as much support as they can from Bush's supporters and super PACs.
Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.
But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come.
Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.
But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
Day Four: Happy Primary Day!
Today is the day! After weeks of campaigning, debating, and shamelessly promoting themselves the candidates will finally get to see if all of their hard work paid off. Most voting places are open from 6 am until 7 pm but a few towns run things differently on primary day. Because the towns of Dixville Notch, Millsfield, and Hart's Landing all have fewer than 100 residents they are allowed to begin voting at midnight and close their polls after everyone that is eligible to vote has voted. In past elections Dixville Notch has successfully predicted every Republican nominee since 1968, an astounding 12 elections. Today, these were the results:
Dixville Notch:
Sanders 4, Clinton 0
Kasich 3, Trump 2
Millsfield:
Clinton 2, Sanders 1
Cruz 9, Trump 3, Kasih 1, Rubio 1, Christie 1, Bush 1, Fiorina, Paul 1
Hart's Landing:
Sanders 12, Clinton 7, Greenstein 2
Kasich 5, Trump 4, Christie 2, Rubio 1, Bush 1, Carson 1
Now these towns may not have much to do with the overall outcome of tonight's election but it does showcase American democracy at its finest. And if this story sounded slightly familiar to you, the political drama "The West Wing" dedicated a sentimental plot line to the people of these towns during the reelection of their fictional President Josiah Bartlett.
Sunday, February 7, 2016
GOP Debate Article
Good morning! As our vans head towards our first event of the day, here is an article from The Washington Post analyzing the candidates from the debate last night: who won, who lost, and everything in between.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/06/winners-and-losers-from-the-new-hampshire-republican-debate/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/06/winners-and-losers-from-the-new-hampshire-republican-debate/
Saturday, February 6, 2016
Candidate Signs in Action
Governor Kasich's signs could be seen as soon as we crossed the New Hampshire border.
Signs for Trump, Jeb!, and Fiorina were not far behind.
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