Tactics and Results of Nevada and South Carolina

On Saturday February 20th the third and fourth contests of the 2016 Presidential Election took place in both South Carolina and Nevada. South Carolina, the first state in the south to vote, held a primary for the Republican field of candidates. Donald Trump came out on top winning all of the state's 50 delegates with 32.5% of the votes while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz essentially tied for second place with 22.5% and 22.3% of the vote respectively. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all came in a distant fourth, fifth, and sixth place all receiving around 7% of the vote. By the end of the night it was clear that Donald Trump, after winning two of the three first contests in this election cycle, was a force to be reckoned with. Though he refrains from using any form of political correctness this tactic has worked well for him for months because he is able to tap into the anger that most middle class Americans have been feeling towards the establishment in Washington. But will the momentum Trump seems to have last until the Republican National Convention in July? Or will one of the more establishment candidates like Rubio or Kasich be able to win enough delegates during Super Tuesday and over the next few months to dump the Trump?

Speaking of establishment candidates Jeb Bush finally dropped out of the race for president this past Saturday. With almost no support in polls nationwide and no delegates won, it was only a matter of time before Bush ended his bid. In the last few weeks Jeb tried every possible strategy to try to gain any support that he could. He tried adding an exclamation point on his campaign slogan and bringing his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, and his brother, former President George W. Bush, on the campaign trail with him. Unfortunately, Bush's campaign was almost doomed from the start. From his announcement, Bush never made it clear exactly what his platform would be throughout the campaign or what he wanted to accomplish if he was successful with his run for the White House. Plus, history was never on his side. Not only was Jeb the third Bush to run for president, but he chose to run in an election when outsider candidates have dominated the political field and made it almost impossible for establishment candidates to get any substantial support. Now that Bush has declared defeat, it is up to Marco Rubio and John Kasich to fight for the title of being the establishment candidate, the one who could possibly defeat Trump over the next few weeks as well as gain as much support as they can from Bush's supporters and super PACs.

Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.

But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come.