Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Iowa Caucus Results

On February 2,2016 the Presidential election officially got underway because on this night the first votes were cast in Iowa to see who would become the 45th President of the United States. The most recent polls from Quinnipiac indicated that Donald Trump was leading in the Republican field with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio rounding out the top three while Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley in the Democratic field. However the results hat the polls had been predicting for months could not perfectly indict how he night would turn out.

In order to figure out exactly how the night went down let's begin with the Republican candidates for president. Polls from various sources had long been indicating that Donald Trump was leading both nationally and in Iowa for the past few weeks though his gap had narrowed to a 7 point lead for Trump, the closer it got to Election Day and the closer Ted Cruz got to the Evangelical voters. On the Democratic side the race was even closer with Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by just 3 points which, as Sanders stated later in the evening is "a virtual tie."

By the end of the night it was clear that Ted Cruz would be the Republican winner with 28% of the vote while Donald Trump came in second with 24% and Marco Rubio rounding out the top three with 23%, a margin that was much closer than most polls had predicted between Trump and Rubio. During his acceptance speech Cruz showed yet again that he is the best representative of the conservative movement, stating this was a "victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation." Trump meanwhile was rather subdued in his comments over his second place finish saying that he "absolutely loves the people of Iowa" and that he is "just honored" about the votes that he received from his supports.

Yet maybe the most surprising victory speech came from Marco Rubio who sounded more as if he had won the entire caucus rather than come in third place, "they told me I didn't have a chance because my hair wasn't great enough and my boots were too high, they told me I needed to wait my turn, to wait in line." With Rubio finishing strongly in third place and surprising many who thought that Trump would have had a much larger margin between the other candidates, Rubio will likely be getting more endorsements, money, and media attention than he has thus far. And with more attention this could mean a stronger finish both in the New Hampshire primary next week and the South Carolina and Nevada contests at the end of this month.

While the Republican race was able to be called relatively early in the night, results for the Democratic race were not officially announced until the next morning because the race was the "closest democratic election in the history of Iowa" according to party officials. In the end Clinton beat Sanders by barely a percentage point, though she began celebrating long before this was officially announced. Clinton spoke from a victory stage early in the evening before all of the caucus votes had been finalized, to thank Iowans as she "breathed a big sigh of relief" that her campaign was able to overcome the grassroots momentum that the Bernie Sanders campaign had been gaining for the past few weeks.

Meanwhile during Sanders speech, he seemed extremely grateful to be able to go from zero name recognition in Iowa to a tie with one of the well known political candidates of our time. For some across the nation, the narrow margins from this Iowa caucus evoked memories from 2008 when Clinton, who was known as the presumed nominee, was beaten by then Senator Barack Obama. However, this cycle the Clinton campaign seems extremely eager to take this small margin over Sanders as an absolute win, most likely in the hopes that she will be able to continue to build momentum towards New Hampshire and the rest of the primary season. Sanders is not opposed to declaring victory either as this tie proves to those who doubted him that he can indeed put up a fight against Clinton and Wall Street.

But Monday night was not just about the men and women who were able to finish strong and continue their campaigns and hopes of receiving a party nomination. No, Monday night was also the end of the road for candidates who were simply not able to turn out the support that they had once dreamed of. Republican Governor Mike Huckabee ended his run for the White House on Monday evening as well as Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley. By Wednesday afternoon even more candidates dropped out of the race including Senator Rand Paul and Senator Rick Santorum who had actually won the Iowa Caucus four years ago. For each of these campaigns they never seemed to be able to gain enough momentum to produce a serious run for the presidency, but nevertheless, they tried their best.

Now it's on to New Hampshire, the first state in the country where the first primary votes will be cast for president and where unprecedented things will be bound to happen. Who will come out on top of the Republican field? Will Cruz maintain his lead? Will Trump win and prove that he can turn out the vote when necessary? Or will Rubio continue his upward climb and potentially upset the entire field? And of course we can't forget about the Democrats. With Sanders' home state of Vermont next door he is presumed to win New Hampshire with a large margin over Clinton. But with her slight victory from Iowa will she be able to close the gap on Sanders and possible even win the entire state? Get ready to find out, there's only 5 days to go!

No comments:

Post a Comment