Day One of the Democratic National Convention

"More Damn Emails"

Although this time the emails did not come from Hillary Clinton herself but were rather about her and her candidacy and sent by prominent members of the Democratic National Committee. Through the emails it was clear to see that Clinton was favored over Senator Bernie Sanders to be the next Democratic Nominee for President. In response, Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz resigned in relative shame which got the convention in Philadelphia off to a similar start as the Republican's Convention last week in Cleveland. The similarities between these conventions' first day ends after this however. Whereas the Republicans had poor time management for their prime time speakers resulting in an empty convention hall and a speech with major hints of plagiarism the speakers for the Democratic Convention were poised and brimming with party unity.  

"Michelle Obama"

I once wrote a report about the speech Hillary Clinton gave as First Lady to the United Nations Fourth World Conference in Beijing on "women's rights being human rights and human rights being women's rights." I believe this to be one of the most popular speeches any First Lady has ever given. First Lady Michelle Obama's speech tops that. While her husband, President Barack Obama, is well known for his great oratory capabilities, Michelle's skills tend to be swept under the rug simply because First Ladies do not have the same hold on the news cycle as the President of the United States does. However, the emotion that Mrs. Obama packed into her speech as well as the unity she promoted for the party and its delegates between the Hillary and Bernie supporters was simply astounding. It seemed as if everyone in the convention hall and everyone watching from their homes was amazed by the First Lady and wondered afterwards if she would ever think of running for elected office someday. Not only did Mrs. Obama endorse Hillary, but she painted a picture of how her family's life has played out in the most public of houses for the last eight years. If you haven't already seen this speech or would simply like to watch it again as I myself will be doing soon, check out this link here.

"Bernie Sanders"

After only one night of the Democratic National Convention it is hard to know if what Bernie told his supporters will truly sink in and create the party unity that the leaders of the party are hoping for. A few hours before Bernie even spoke the tension was thick in the room when comedian and outspoken Bernie supporter Sarah Silverman told the 'Bernie or Bust' supporters that "they were being ridiculous" as they continued to chant for Bernie against their fellow Democrats and Clinton supporters. As the keynote speaker of the night, Bernie thanked his supporters for all of their help over the past year. Even getting a communal shout of "27 dollars" in reference to the average donation his campaign received from the 99% throughout the past year. A rousing speech that ended with him saying that he stands with her does not seem to have gotten through to all of his supporters however. During MSNBC's post convention coverage, three separate Bernie supporters voiced their concerns for Clinton as the nominee saying that they still could not trust her even as their most trusted candidate, Bernie, says that he trusts her. As the convention proceeds over the next few days this will become the main goal of the Clinton campaign: to move those Bernie supporters to vote for her rather than Trump or one of the third party candidates. Will anything Bernie says to his supporters be able to convince them to vote for Clinton? Or will the magic words have to come from Clinton herself? Only the next few nights of the convention will tell. 

Politics Took a Holiday

Or more accurately, I took a holiday from politics for the past few months. But that holiday has come to an end because America is embarking on a grand political adventure over the next two weeks.....

The Republican and Democratic Conventions!

These conventions will work to nominate Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as the Republican and Democratic runners for president, respectively. Thousands of delegates, reporters, politicians, and who knows who else will descend upon Cleveland and Philadelphia to participate in this uniquely American political process. And I'll observe all of the madness from a comfortable distance in Upstate New York.

Hillary Clinton's Bases of Support

Defining a candidate's bases of support are one of the most important parts of a campaign because these groups of people are the ones that the candidate can rely on to vote for them during an election. Each candidate has a different base of support based on that candidate's views on policies, social problems, and their background. Normally, each party also has distinct coalition that will vote for any candidate in their respective Republican and Democratic Parties. For instance the Republican Party coalition has traditionally been composed of Southern whites, Evangelicals, Veterans, men, married women, voters who are older, and voters who live in the Central Plains region of the United States. On the Democratic side, minorities such as African Americans and Hispanics, secular voters, members of the LGBT community, single women, voters who are younger, and voters who live on the East and West Coasts of the United States. While these demographics are changing with every election, for the most part these coalitions have remained the same for this year's Presidential Election.

As a candidate running on the Democratic Party ticket, Hillary Clinton is tapping in to these traditional bases of support to strengthen her run for the presidency as well as show that she has the ability to attract voters from all across the country and from a variety of backgrounds. One statement that she has continuously made regarding this idea in recent weeks is that "I've gotten more votes than anybody running on either side" from a "wide, broad base" as she recently announced on CBS's Face the Nation with John Dickerson. By stating these claims, Clinton hopes to continue to add to her supporters as voters realize that she will likely be the Democratic Nominee and potentially the next President of the United States.

According to exit polls from CNN Politics and the most recent New York Primary held on April 19th, this "wide, broad base" of supporters comes from women, voters over the age of 30, and voters who identify with the Democratic Party. While the New York Primary is a closed primary, meaning that only people who have registered with a political party prior to the election can vote, there is still a substantial amount of data that can be gathered from these polls. For instance, Clinton won the women's vote 67% compared to Sanders 37%; the African American vote 75% to 25%; and the Latino vote 64% to 36%. However, when it came to education and income levels, voters were almost evenly split between the two candidates with Clinton beating Sanders in these areas by an average of 10 points rather than something more drastic like 20 or 30 points.

The large margin that Clinton has been able to secure among minority voters echoes the large bases of support that President Obama achieved when he ran for president in both 2008 and 2012. Obama's coalition was made up of younger voters who may have never voted before and minority voters who tended to be overshadowed by other candidates in the race. Clinton has latched on to this idea by promoting her campaign as a continuation of Obama's presidency in some ways, in order to gain support from his supporters.

However, Clinton has had trouble gaining support from specific groups during this election cycle, most notably younger voters under the age of 30. These voters are the voters that helped push Obama to his wins in 2008 and 2012 because they had never voted before and were excited to become a part of the political process and use new technologies such as Twitter to get their opinions heard. These voters tend to overwhelmingly support Sanders as can be seen in many exit polls where Sanders has beaten Clinton by over 30 points when it comes to voters under 30. Clinton has also struggled to gain support from white, rural men and may also be struggling to get votes from unions. Unions are traditionally a large part of the Democratic base, and still are, they just tend to favor Sanders over Clinton in certain cases. One of Sanders' key issues has been income inequality which many unions face as they negotiate contracts for their workers in order to raise wages so that their workers can support themselves. While Sanders has said that he strongly supports the $15 minimum wage movement, Clinton has said that she supports a movement to raise the minimum wage to $12, a number not quite as extreme as $15. Though these positions seem similar to the outside eye, Clinton may need to strengthen her support of an increase in minimum wage as it gets closer to the general election so she can gain support from Sanders' supporters if he does not get the nomination in July.

Clinton will need to continue to work on gaining support from Sanders' voters in the coming months in order to ensure that they vote for her rather than voting for the Republican Nominee or not voting at all. The following image is from NBC News as part of their coverage after the New York Primary which shows what voters under 30, some of Sanders strongest supporters, would do if Clinton was the Democratic Nominee. While it is a great sign that 45% would definitely vote for her, Clinton must work to gain support from those who say they would probably vote for her and those who would not vote for her. Gaining support from these voters means that there is a smaller chance for Trump to convert these voters to his campaign and lose the race for the Democrats. To do this Clinton must continue to tout her leadership experience and showcase how her qualities would make her the best fit to be the next president. She will also need to make sure to avoid any gaffes and work on the character that her campaign gives off so that voters can see she is more honest and trustworthy than the media tends to portray her as.

Strategies for the Democratic Candidate for the General Election

It's been almost three months since the first presidential primary votes were cast in Iowa and New Hampshire and millions of people across the country have cast their votes for who they think should be the next President of the United States. The field of candidates has narrowed from almost 20 contenders at the start of the year to just 5 candidates between the two parties: Businessman Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, Governor John Kasich, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Senator Bernie Sanders. As the party conventions and the general election draw near, candidates will begin to think about the strategies they will need to use in order to win the White House. Because of the traditional demographics that make up each respective party the strategies that candidates use will vary significantly, especially depending on the platform that they have created throughout the election so far. Since I have been following the Democratic Primary, specifically Hillary Clinton, throughout this primary season here are my top five strategy suggestions for her, or Bernie Sanders, for the general election.

1. Focus on the Issues
The point of elections, especially for the presidency, are more than publicly beating up on your opponents and seeing who is leading in the polls, although that is what the media tends to focus on with their "horse-race politics." The issues that candidates talk about on the campaign trail are often the policies that they will try to pass as legislation once they are elected President, so it is important for the Democratic Candidate to clearly state their views on the salient issues of this election. That means stating their stance on income inequality, immigration, gun control, women's rights, LGBT rights, and the economy. These issues have become the most debated topics of this year's election on the Democratic side and are the one's that the American people care about the most thanks to candidates like Sanders and Trump who focus solely on some of these issues at times. Not only would the Democratic Nominee need to talk about their opinions on these issues, but their opinions need to align with the Democratic Party's overall platform as well so that elections held at the state and local level can build off of what the national candidates are doing. Focusing on the issues also helps voters distinguish between the two parties and know which candidates would work on fixing areas that concern them the most.

2. Work on Image and Leadership Qualities
With the New York State Primary held earlier this week, the issue of leadership was a frequent topic of debate among the Democratic Candidates. Accusations that Sanders said Clinton was not qualified to be President of the United States not only hurts that candidate specifically, but the party in general. In comparison to the Republican Party Primaries this year, the Democratic ones have been extremely peaceful and polite and this atmosphere cannot change if the Democrats hope to win the general election in November. Whoever becomes the Democratic Nominee will need to focus on their record of experience and how that will prepare them for the White House whether that is the time they have spent in the Senate or time as the Secreatary of State. The Democratic Nominee will also need to work on their image and potentially continue the image that President Obama has created for the party as one that helps people who are disadvantaged get the rights that they deserve.

3. Unite the Party
Though the Democratic Party has appeared to be more presidential at times than the Republican Party, there is still a certain amount of division within the party. As with any race, supporters of particular candidates are often loyal to their candidate and have a hard time switching their support if their candidate does not win the nomination. However, a scenario where Sanders supports refuse to support Clinton as the nominee or vice versa could be detrimental to the party and potentially lose the White House to whoever the Republican Nominee turns out to be. In order to unite the party to defeat the Republicans, the Democratic Nominee will need to help fund raise for other candidates running on the Democratic ticket at both the local and state level and make appearances for these candidates at various campaign events. This would help create unity because it would show that all of the Democratic candidates have similar views on the issues and make everyone in the party feel like they are important and that their concerns were being heard.

4. Strengthen the Coalition
Every political party has a specific coalition that they depend on during elections to vote for their candidates. On the Democratic side their coalition, or base, consists of minorities including African Americans and Hispanics, younger voters, people who tend not to associate with a specific religion, members of the LGBT community, and people who live on the East or West coasts of the country. By focusing on issues that members of these communities care about such as immigration reform, decreasing the economic inequality among classes, and creating affordable college, the Democratic Nominee will know that on the first Tuesday in November when these groups go vote that they will be voting Democratic. However, the Democratic Nominee cannot depend solely on these people to win the election for them. The nominee will have to broaden their message to a certain degree so that Independents or other undecided voters will consider voting for the Democratic candidate rather than the Republican one.

5. Us vs. Them Mentality
Due to the extremely polarized political world that we currently live in, it is necessary for the Democratic Nominee to play into this mindset of Us vs. Them in order to win the general election. This strategy can work better than it may have in previous election cycles because this year's elections have seem some very nontraditional candidates on the Republican side. By exploiting these characteristics that show how unqualified and disrespectful some of the Republican candidates have been, it could show voters that the Democratic Nominee is much more qualified and trustful to be the next president than the Republican Nominee could ever be. However, the way in which the Democratic Nominee creates this image cannot be extremely explicit. Instead they would need to show their qualifications through campaign ads, speeches, and endorsements rather than simply stating that the Republicans are bad and the Democrats are good because this type of speech could backfire on the Democrats and make them seem greedy more than anything else.

Cadidate Standings in Terms of Delegates and Polls

After 33 primaries and caucuses in the 2016 Presidential Election, the race to the nomination is more than halfway done. Leading on the Republican side is Donald Trump with 743 delegates, followed by Ted Cruz with 517, and John Kasich with 143. On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 1,749 while Bernie Sanders has 1,061 delegates. With just 882 delegates left for the Republicans to distribute and 1,955 delegates for the Democrats, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding who the nominees will be for each party.

On the Republican side, the nominee must claim 1,237 delegates in order to win on the first ballot. While Trump has been the front runner for most of the race, it is unclear whether he will reach the 1,237 benchmark before the nominating convention in July. As more candidates on the Republican side have dropped out, support for Cruz has increased and so has the number of delegates he has been receiving. Cruz now has the possibility to unseat Trump and claim the nomination for himself if he continues to gain momentum as the last few states vote in the primaries. Cruz's commanding win in Wisconsin on Tuesday showed that he has the capability to handily defeat Trump; in fact, he is the only candidate who has repeatedly been able to do this. Polls from Real Clear Politics show that Trump is beating Cruz by just 5 points nationwide 40% to 35% respectively, while Kasich is in a distant third with 20% (McClatchy/Marist). Kasich has not given up hope on the possibility that he could be the next Republican nominee however. If neither Trump nor Cruz have reached the 1,237 delegates by the convention, Kasich could have the opportunity to win the nomination after the first round of voting at the convention. Though Trump, Cruz, and other leaders in the Republican party have called for Kasich to resign from the race, he continues to stay in, most likely as to counter their extreme ideologies to his more traditional, moderate ones.

On the Democratic side, the nominating process has also stayed competitive long after many political pundits thought it would. Sanders has been able to rise from an unknown candidate to one of the most prominent political figures in just 11 months after announcing his bid for the presidency. While it seemed that Clinton would easily defeat Sanders in the first few races, she has not been able to compete with the amount of grassroots support that young Americans have been showing Sanders. The most recent poll from McClatchy/Marist shows that Sanders is leading Clinton by 2 points, 49% to 47%, respectively. However, other polls show that Clinton is still leading the race over Sanders, anywhere from 6 points to 18 points ahead (Pew Research, Public Policy Polling). While the tightening of polls increases the confidence of Sanders supporters, it is still highly unlikely that he will be able to gain the Democratic nomination before the convention. He trails Clinton by almost 700 delegates with 400 or so of those delegates being Super Delegates. These Super Delegates are leaders of the Democratic party and include representatives from Congress who are likely to continue to support Clinton because she is the establishment candidate on the Democratic side. For Sanders to convince these Super Delegates to shift their support from Clinton he would need a win from a major Democratic state such as New York, which could potentially happen, to show these Super Delegates he has what it takes to win.

Looking forward to the end of the Presidential Primary season it is incredible to see how much has changed since the first votes were cast in Iowa in February. Both fields of candidates have been narrowed down considerably, though it is still unclear who each party's nominee will be. While Trump and Clinton still hold leads over their rivals, the commanding lead they once had has almost evaporated. Polls are ever changing and known to inaccurately predict winners, like Sanders victory in Michigan in March, so they must be carefully analyzed and taken with a grain of salt as the campaigns march forward to the conventions and general election.

Hillary Clinton's Univision Debate Performance

On March 9th, both of the Democratic candidates took the stage at Miami Dade College in Florida for their eighth debate. It was just one day after Senator Bernie Sanders upset win over Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Primary. But while Sanders was able to eek out a win, Clinton was still able to gain a greater number of delegates that night, mostly from her large margin over Sanders in the Mississippi Primary. After all of the primaries prior to March 15th Clinton's delegate total is at 775 while Sanders has a total of 552.

From the beginning of this debate, the moderators immediately asked pressing questioning of the candidates, wasting no time in getting started. Clinton was asked where she failed with regards to her loss in the Michigan Primary and why she has started to sound more like the Democratic nomination is already hers rather than continue to battle for it in the primaries. She responded by saying that her campaign was focusing on her other wins from that night, not her one loss in Michigan, and that this entire process is a marathon where you need to look for positive solutions to get things done. As Sanders stated just a few minutes later when asked about how his delegate count was far less than Clinton's, he said that his win in the Michigan Primary could possibly be one of the greatest political upsets in modern times. This statement and many others throughout the debate from Sanders were aimed at convincing the American public that he is by no means out of the race for the Democratic nomination even though Clinton has begun to pander to a more general audience.

Pandering was also one of the next issues brought up by the moderators when discussing Clinton's stance on immigration. Had she been "His-pandering" when she changed her stance on illegal immigrants from stating that she was "adamantly against them" in a 2003 interview to today's stance where she plans on attacking immigration reform in her first 100 days in office? Clinton fired back saying that she had supported the Dreamer Act that was proposed to Congress in 2003 and in every Congress since then, as well as stating that she is a strong supported in immigration reform. Throughout the debate on immigration Clinton frequently brought up her record on various Senate votes that she had participated in during her time in Congress. She even attempted to discredit Senator Sanders stance on immigration when she mentioned that he had voted against the 2003 Dreamer Act whereas she had voted for it. Sanders was not taking the bait however and defended his vote on that bill as well explaining what he would do with immigration reform as President of the United States.

It was clear that Clinton was put on the defensive from the beginning of the debate as a way to test her and see how well she could hold up after a surprising loss in Michigan. Her strategy was to use her Senate voting record to show how she has been in favor of immigration reform for years as well as stating that she would build off of Obama's current plans if she were to be elected president. Another strategy was to attack Sanders in as many areas as she possibly could so she could call him out on anything he said that might appear out of line, a technique called "the spread" that many debate teams, use according to an article written by James Hohmann for the Washington Post. Hohmann's article had an educated critique of the debate in general and on Clinton's performance in particular which helped to put the Democratic race in perspective. While Clinton's debate performance seemed strong there was still room for improvement, especially when it comes to how her campaign strategy should evolve over the next few weeks. Sanders proved in this debate that he too was in the race for the long run and should not be overlooked by Clinton who was beginning to change her rhetoric to a wider base in the hopes that she could skip over the Democratic convention and go straight to November.

Super Tuesday

12 states.
7 candidates.
2 political parties.
595 Republican delegates at stake.*
865 Democratic delegates at stake.**
A political junkies dream.

After an entire day of voting in 2016 Presidential Election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the two candidates who came out on top of their respective parties. Trump won a total of 234 delegates across a variety of states including Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia while Clinton won a total of 488 delegates across Texas, Georgia, and Massachusetts. But in order to get a better sense of how Super Tuesday went down, its best to separate each state by their delegate counts and how each party did overall.

Alabama
The Republicans: Trump led in Alabama leading up to Super Tuesday by around 15 points compared to his nearest competitor Marco Rubio with Ted Cruz coming in third in most polls. As expected Trump won 26 out of the 50 available delegates with Cruz coming in second with 13 and Rubio ending up in third place with 1.
The Democrats: According to the Monmouth poll, Clinton led Bernie Sanders by almost 50 points, similar to her lead over Sanders in most Southern states. She won 44 of the states 53 delegates while Sanders earned 9.

Alaska
The Republicans: Little polling was done in Alaska before the primary took place because it was not a hotly contested state for the Republican candidates. However it proved beneficial to Cruz because he ended up winning the state and 12 of their 28 delegates with Trump picking up 11 despite his exciting endorsement from former governor Sarah Palin. Rubio also picked up 5 delegates.

Arkansas
The Republicans: For the top three Republican candidates, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, polling showed that Arkansas would be one of the closer races of the night. This could be seen when all of the delegates were awarded with Trump winning and receiving 16, Cruz with 14, and Rubio with 9 out of 40 that were available for the candidates.
The Democrats: Clinton led in polling data over Sanders which was not surprising due to the fact that her husband Bill Clinton was a former governor of Arkansas as well as the state residing in the South where Clinton tends to outpace her opponent. At the end of the night she won 19 of the total 32 available delegates with Sanders taking 9 for himself.

Colorado
The Democrats: Prior to the primary, Quinnipiac had polls showing the Clinton would come out on top of Sanders to win the state. However, Sanders gained 35 of the states 66 delegates in comparison to the 24 which Clinton received, helping him win one of his four victories of the night.

Georgia
The Republicans: Georgia's polls showed that the Republican race was relatively close with Trump around 35 points, Rubio around 22, and Cruz around 18. At the end of the night Trump won the state with 40 of the 76 available delegates with Cruz taking second and 18 delegates, and Rubio rounding out the top three with 14 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton had a huge lead over Sanders in Georgia due to the makeup of the electorate being more diverse than previous states Sanders had won. And it was no exception that Clinton won and received 70 of the 102 available delegates while Sanders only picked up 28.

Massachusetts
The Republicans: Trump led the Republican field in Massachusetts, but as polls showed, Ohio governor John Kasich was consistently coming in third. By the end of the night Trump won, receiving 22 delegates out of 42 available with Kasich coming in second winning 8 delegates. Rubio also received 8 delegates while Cruz only picked up 4.
The Democrats: For the Democrats, Massachusetts was seen as a battleground state because of its location to Sanders home state of Vermont as well as polls that showed the two candidates were anywhere between 5 and 10 points away from each other. Though it looked like Sanders was going to come away with a win, Clinton ended up winning the state by a narrow margin along with 45 of the 91 available delegates; just two more than Sanders who received 43.

Minnesota
The Republicans: Minnesota is not known to be a battle ground state or even a state that most candidates are counting on unless they are from there or absolutely need to win. In Rubio's case it was the latter. This was the only state that Rubio won on Super Tuesday and helped him get 14 delegates compared to 13 for Cruz and just 10 for Trump. While Rubio's campaign was excited by his first win it was also the first time that Trump had finished third in a primary contest, something unknown to the GOP front runner.
The Democrats: Similar to Colorado, polls showed that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by a fair amount, but because Minnesota was not one of the battle ground states of the night newer polling had not taken place for some time. Sanders was able to pull off another win here and received 46 of the 77 delegates available while Clinton received just 28.

Oklahoma
The Republicans: Trump was shown to be leading Cruz in polls by a margin of about 10 points, but due to the fact that Oklahoma borders Cruz's home state of Texas it looked like it could be a close call.  At the end of the night Cruz won and picked up 14 of the available 43 delegates followed by Trump with 12 and Rubio with 11.
The Democrats: Clinton and Sanders were also in a tight race with Sanders leading Clinton by 5 points. By the end of the night Sanders was victorious, earning 20 out of the available 38 delegates while Clinton received 16.

Tennessee
The Republicans: Trump again led the polls over Cruz and Rubio in Tennessee and ended up winning the night with 31 out of 58 available delegates followed by Cruz with 14 and Rubio with 9.
The Democrats: Again it was unsurprising to see Clinton leading Sanders in Tennessee by a 30 point margin as well as her winning the state and 41 delegates out of 67. Sanders also picked up 22 delegates.

Texas 
The Republicans: As Texas is Cruz's home state, this was a crucial win for him. But polls leading up to the big day showed that Trump was not that far behind Cruz and could possibly overcome him and take the lead. In the end Cruz came out on top with the biggest single state delegate win of the night, picking up 99 of the 155 available delegates. Trump finished second with 33 and Rubio came in third with 3 delegates.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders by almost 30 points in the Texas primary and won this state as many expected her to. She picked up 138 of 222 delegates while Sanders picked up 61.

Vermont 
The Republicans: Since very little polling data had come out of Vermont, and it wasn't a competitive race for anyone on the Republican side, it was expected that this would be yet another state for Trump to increase his delegate count. And it was. He received 6 of the state's 16 delegates while Kasich came in second once again to receive 6 delegates of his own.
The Democrats: Being the home state of Sanders it would have taken an act of God for Clinton to beat him here especially because he had led the polls since the beginning of the primary season. Vermont was probably Sanders biggest and most sentimental win of the race so far because he took home 16 delegates compared to Clinton's 0.

Virginia
The Republicans: Polls showed that the race for delegates here would be between Trump and Rubio with the possibility that Rubio could come out with an important win. And it looked like Rubio's dreams might come true when polls closed at the beginning of the night. But while Rubio was able to turn out voters in the Virginian suburbs of DC, Trump eventually won the state and 17 of their 49 delegates with Rubio coming in a close second with 16 delegates. Cruz finished in second picking up 8 delegates, Kasich with 5, and Ben Carson even picked up a few delegates here gaining 3 for his campaign.
The Democrats: Clinton led Sanders in Virginia as she had for weeks by a lead of about 20 points. She was able to keep that lead and take 61  of their 95 available delegates at the end of the night while Sanders picked up 32 for himself.

Overall, Super Tuesday went according to plan for both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton who won substantially in a variety of states across the country. But for Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ben Carson, and Bernie Sanders it was a different story. For Cruz, who won 3 states he has the ability to continue in the race for quite some time. As his campaign has begun to say, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who has actually beaten Trump in a primary and caucus. With this fact on his side he could possibly stay in the race until the convention in July in the hopes that he could spoil Trump and take the nomination away from him. Rubio meanwhile has a harder decision to make. After winning only one state, Minnesota, and placing third in almost every contest where he was able to break the required threshold, it is looking like Rubio will drop out of the race soon if there are not drastic changes made. Rubio will most likely hold out until his home state Florida votes on March 15th in the hopes that he will win and be able to reinvigorate his campaign. Kasich seems to be in the same boat as Rubio. While he came in second in two states he did not win any outright. This means that he will also be holding out hope that he can win his home state of Ohio on March 15th and campaign as the establishment candidate of the Republican party, someone who more moderates and conservatives might think about voting for instead of Trump or Cruz. But wait, there's one more Republican candidate to discuss! Dr. Ben Carson who received just 4 delegates at the end of the night. With no hope of continuing a successful campaign, Carson dropped out of the race just days after Super Tuesday.

And let's not forget about the other Democratic hopeful, Bernie Sanders. While Sanders was not able to get quite the amount of delegates that he was hoping for on Super Tuesday he did come away with a substantial amount and a substantial amount of momentum looking forward in the race. When comparing the pledged delegates of both Sanders and Clinton the picture looks even better for Sanders because they are relatively close in number. But what Sanders needs to improve upon is the number of Super Delegates he can get to support him. Super delegates are elected Democrat officials or other significant members of the party whose votes weighs more than the traditional delegates of the party; and almost all of them support Clinton. If Sanders wants to continue to inspire a political revolution he needs to work on gaining as many Super Delegates as he can, like Barack Obama did in 2008, as well on increase the diversity in his voting electorate.

As a whole Super Tuesday turned out to be what political pollsters and pundits were expecting. No surprise margins of error in their polls to cause an unknown candidate to win. No serious scandals were revealed about any candidate. No controversial drop outs. But this is just the beginning of the official voting cycle for the next President of the United States. Who knows what the next 34 contests will bring.


* According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes Colorado and Wyoming's delegates because these states are holding caucus' and not primaries
** According to data based on FiveThirtyEight which excludes the 150 Super Delegates which have the ability to change there pledge until the Democratic Convention in July

Hillary Clinton's Performance and Media Framing of Forum Results 2/18/2016

On February 28th MSNBC hosted a town hall event for the Democratic candidates for president former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders. This town hall was moderated by Chuck Todd and Jose Diaz-Balart both of whom are well known political journalists and have their own political commentary shows on MSNBC.

Unlike other Democratic debates that have occurred so far in the election cycle, this town hall was set up in a way that the candidates took a few questions from the moderators at the beginning of the night followed by questions from the audience for the remainder of the time. Senator Sanders went first and was asked a variety of questions ranging from immigration reform, his ideas on feminism, and his plans to raise the minimum wage over the next 15 years. It was unclear how this town hall would receive Sanders due to his recent image in the media being portrayed as a "single issue candidate." From the beginning Sanders denied that he was a single issues candidate and by the end of the night was able to close Clinton's national lead in the polls from 25 points in the middle of January to just 11 points in the middle of February according to NBC News.

But for a majority of media outlets, Clinton was the main focus of the night. After a double digit loss to Sanders in New Hampshire, the country was eager to see how she would perform. And perform she did. Clinton was precise and almost eager to answer as many questions as she could in a relatively honest, basic manner. When asked about the Supreme Court appointment being considered after the recent death of Antonin Scalia she said that Congress needs to do their Constitutional duty and let the process of nominating someone occur in a timely manner. When talking about this issue, Clinton acknowledged Senator Harry Reid from Nevada and multiple other Congressmen throughout the night. It seemed that this tactic was a way for Clinton to show that she has had experience working with Congress and that she would be able to do so successfully if she were to be elected president.

Clinton also stated that "like many Americans, I have evolved...in my views" when asked about gay marriage and immigration reform. These statements from Clinton were a way to depict her evolution as a politician and associate her with other like minded Americans. In an implicit way Clinton seemed to appeal to voters that have changed their minds on issues from the past to show that she has human characteristics just like everyone else and is more than the disconnected candidate the media has portrayed her as. Because Clinton was predicted to come back from her New Hampshire upset and perform well in Nevada and South Carolina, this town hall was a way for her campaign to reset themselves and begin to look at the larger election.

Hillary Clinton's Performance in Nevada

After a double digit loss to Senator Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire almost two weeks before the Nevada Democratic Caucus, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was looking for a resurgence in her campaign. As the grassroots idealism of the Sanders campaign grew, Clinton's campaign was forced to take a step back and evaluate how her campaign needed to move forward towards the next vote. Based on exit polls received from Nevada it was clear that Clinton did a much better job than Sanders in regards to winning a diverse electorate. Voters that were women, voters that were over the age of 45, voters that were African American, voters that were registered Democrats, and voters that were also union workers, voted for Clinton more often than they voted for Sanders according to CBS News. However, Clinton was not able to gain an advantage with Hispanic voters or voters under the age of 45; Sanders continues to crush Clinton with this percentage. Yet Clinton seemed perfectly fine with this.

In her victory speech, Clinton focused on thanking her supporters both in Nevada and around the country for all of the hard work and donations that they have contributed to her campaign. She promised to "break down every barrier that holds you back" and went after the Sanders campaign stating that "we aren't a single issue country...we need more than a plan for the big banks, the middle class needs a raise." These cracks at the Sanders campaign were not the primary theme in Clinton's speech, but were instead used to highlight issues from her traditional stump speech. With the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday rounding out the first month of official campaigning, Clinton is starting to focus on the general election in November rather than every primary between now and the convention.

Though she needs to find a way to excite young voters, particularly women, she continues to dominate the national media over Sanders. After winning three of the first four contests in the 2016 presidential election cycle, the media is realizing that Clinton still has the power to take the Democratic Nomination in July even with the growing momentum of the Sanders campaign. As the race begins to head South, the media is predicting that Clinton will dominate in almost every contest, especially during Super Tuesday. It seemed as if the media knew Clinton would win Nevada by a reasonable margin that they immediately shifted their attention to her national campaign strategies as soon as she was declared the winner in Nevada. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is ahead in almost every poll ranging from the Carolinas, to Michigan, to Illinois. It is clear that the media is predicting a large margin of victory in regards to pledged delegates to Clinton on Super Tuesday, but there is still the possibility that Sanders could have some surprise wins in the Northeast in Massachusetts and his home state of Vermont.

Tactics and Results of Nevada and South Carolina

On Saturday February 20th the third and fourth contests of the 2016 Presidential Election took place in both South Carolina and Nevada. South Carolina, the first state in the south to vote, held a primary for the Republican field of candidates. Donald Trump came out on top winning all of the state's 50 delegates with 32.5% of the votes while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz essentially tied for second place with 22.5% and 22.3% of the vote respectively. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all came in a distant fourth, fifth, and sixth place all receiving around 7% of the vote. By the end of the night it was clear that Donald Trump, after winning two of the three first contests in this election cycle, was a force to be reckoned with. Though he refrains from using any form of political correctness this tactic has worked well for him for months because he is able to tap into the anger that most middle class Americans have been feeling towards the establishment in Washington. But will the momentum Trump seems to have last until the Republican National Convention in July? Or will one of the more establishment candidates like Rubio or Kasich be able to win enough delegates during Super Tuesday and over the next few months to dump the Trump?

Speaking of establishment candidates Jeb Bush finally dropped out of the race for president this past Saturday. With almost no support in polls nationwide and no delegates won, it was only a matter of time before Bush ended his bid. In the last few weeks Jeb tried every possible strategy to try to gain any support that he could. He tried adding an exclamation point on his campaign slogan and bringing his mother, former First Lady Barbara Bush, and his brother, former President George W. Bush, on the campaign trail with him. Unfortunately, Bush's campaign was almost doomed from the start. From his announcement, Bush never made it clear exactly what his platform would be throughout the campaign or what he wanted to accomplish if he was successful with his run for the White House. Plus, history was never on his side. Not only was Jeb the third Bush to run for president, but he chose to run in an election when outsider candidates have dominated the political field and made it almost impossible for establishment candidates to get any substantial support. Now that Bush has declared defeat, it is up to Marco Rubio and John Kasich to fight for the title of being the establishment candidate, the one who could possibly defeat Trump over the next few weeks as well as gain as much support as they can from Bush's supporters and super PACs.

Across the country in Nevada, the Democratic Party was holding their second caucus of the season between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In the weeks leading up to this caucus the polls showed that both Clinton and Sanders were practically tied or that one candidate was leading by a small margin. However, Clinton was able to win by about 5 points on Saturday with 52.6% of the vote in comparison to Sanders' 47.3%. This win was expected by Clinton and much needed to show that her double digit defeat in the New Hampshire Primary on February 9th was not due to problems with her campaign, but rather because Sanders' home state of Vermont is neighbors with New Hampshire. Though caucus results are not as accurate as a primary vote, as was seen in Iowa where some districts were decided by the flip of a coin, Nevada was a taste of what could come for the Democratic candidates in a general election. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, the Nevada electorate is more diverse with a larger African American and Hispanic population. This fact is an advantage for Clinton because she has proven she can win these voters, especially because she has promised to continue President Obama's agenda if she is elected President of the United States. Clinton was also helped in part by Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid. Though Reid did not endorse either candidate publicly, he did help push for caucus sites that were convenient for casino workers to get to. Since a higher percentage of casino workers are Hispanic this helped Clinton win on Saturday.

But just because Bernie Sanders didn't win Nevada does not mean that he is out of the race. Sanders' tactic to focus on economic issues as one of the most important platforms of his campaign has proven a successful strategy. Through this he has been able to tap in to a certain amount of anger that middle class Americans have been feeling, similarly to what Republican voters have by throwing their support behind Trump. Sanders also continues to win young voters by an astounding margin over Clinton, earning 82% of the vote in comparison to Clinton's 14% with voters ages 17-29 according to CNN. If Sanders and Clinton continue to stay within a relatively small margin of each other, their primary contest could take much longer than most political scientists thought just a few weeks ago. With South Carolina on February 27th and Super Tuesday on March 1, there are hundreds of delegates up for grabs for both candidates meaning that there may not be a decision for weeks to come. 

The Democratic Debate February 11, 2016

On Thursday night, just two days after the New Hampshire primary, Democratic candidates Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took the stage for their sixth presidential debate, on the campus of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, hosted by PBS News Hour and Facebook. Before this debate began, there was speculation circulating on how Clinton would do after her 22-point loss to Sanders in the New Hampshire primary. Would she remain calm during the debate and subtly make up for the votes she couldn't get in New Hampshire or would she come out blazing with a need to succeed?

It turns out Clinton used both implicit and explicit tactics to show she has what it takes to become America's next president. She took to the stage in seemingly ready to go with an opening statement that focused on breaking down all of the barriers that are in the way of the American people who are just trying to get ahead. Sanders' opening statement was similar to a point; instead he focused more on the idea that just 9 months ago he was a virtually unknown candidate and now he has been able to insight a political revolution against the establishment of the Democratic Party. The first part of the debate focused on how each candidate saw the role of the federal government in everyday Americans lives. Sanders at first did not answer this question directly but rather danced around it saying that he wanted to guarantee health care, public education, and good infrastructure, essentially implying that the federal government would grow under his presidency. Clinton meanwhile explicitly stated that under her administration the federal government would increase in size by about 40%. She also agreed with Sanders goal to guarantee health care to Americans, but didn't understand why there needed to be another health care debate in the country and why the plan that he proposes doesn't seem to add up monetarily. She instead proposed that we continue on the path that the Affordable Care Act provides, a fight she said she has been fighting since it was called "Hillarycare." The debate continued with questions surrounding Social Security, homeland security, and immigration, all important issues that both Sanders and Clinton spent time discussing their plans to solve in much more detail than it seems the Republicans tend to do when they debate.

However, some of the moments that stood out to the media were not when Clinton or Sanders described their differences on immigration or how they want to fix the growing issue of Social Security, but how each candidate conducted themselves during the debate. In a world where the 30-second soundbite could be the most news an American gets during the day, candidates must be perfectly poised 24/7 so they can get the most appealing shot on replay. To some, like myself, Clinton appeared confident and knowledgeable about the issues at hand while other such as the prominent conservative newspaper The National Review thought otherwise. They thought Clinton had a "sleepy showing" and that "she tried to trip up Sanders with detailed policy answers...but caught in a defensive crouch and struggling to explain her own campaign's shortcomings, she never really found the opening she needed." In comparison, The National Review painted Sanders as a winner whenever he said something that could criticize Clinton or put her on the defensive such as immigration reform or her ties to Wall Street with phrasing such as "he showed up" and the idea that he was "forcefully" answering questions. By using specific language the media has the ability to influence voters by describing a candidate either in a flattering or unflattering light.

Another point that the media tends to focus on, specifically when talking about the Democratic race for president, is the gender difference between Clinton and Sanders. Clinton was asked during the debate why such a large percentage of female voters were turning out in support of her opponent Sanders, rather than her. In my opinion she responded with one of the best answers I have heard when listening to a political debate on gender. Clinton essentially said that just because you are a female, that doesn't mean that it is necessary for you to vote for me, the female candidate. She instead said that women have the right to choose who they want to vote for based on their own ideals and directed the conversation to one focused on raising the standard of equality for women in this country. This answer was a refreshing break from the notion that all women must vote for Hillary Clinton based on their gender and a relatively good response to the quote from Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright who said that "there's a special place in hell for women who don't help each other."

Overall, Thursday's Democratic Debate appeared to be much more substantive than the Republican Debates have been in recent weeks. Perhaps that's due to the candidates who appear on stage, but I think that it also has to do with the media that surrounds each parties presidential nominees. Clinton was portrayed as the De facto nominee and given free media attention for months before Sanders and his grassroots momentum grew into a national campaign gaining their own media attention, that for both candidates tends to appear slightly more professional than that of the Republicans. In contrast, the Republicans tend to be portrayed as a bit of a circus with multiple clowns running around stage at any given time. So as a student of political science I have a challenge from you: read news articles that go against what you normally believe. Try to dig deep and figure out how much of what the candidates say is really true by using sources such as FactCheck.org. This is something I plan on doing for the remainder of this presidential debate because to be an informed voting citizen you need to gather actual information from reputable sites, not just what the biased media outlets repeat every hour.

Day Four: Bernie Sanders

The only presidential candidate we had yet to see during our time in New Hampshire, and one who we were more excited to see than most of the others, was Bernie Sanders. We had been planning to go to his primary night rally at Concord High School just a few minutes from our hotel. One of the other students on our trip, Frank, had been volunteering with the campaign for some time and was supposed to be getting a ticket to the rally in order to get a better seat, while we waited in line and went in with the general public. In order to get his ticket we had to go into Manchester to the Sanders campaign office. Yet when we got there we were met by two deputy directors who didn't seem eager to help us out. These campaign staffers weren't welcoming to us, nor did they really believe that we were there just to pick up a ticket and see how they ran their office. They told us that because it was primary day they weren't willing to give tours or be able to talk to us for very long because they were so busy, something that was extremely disappointing to us. They also did not have any tickets to give out to the event which was odd because Frank had been promised one.

Obviously this entire situation angered us and reflected poorly on the people hired by the Sanders campaign, but we were hopeful that by showing up early to the rally we would be able to get front row seats. So we drove back to Concord, got a quick dinner and headed to the high school where the rally was being held. By  5:20 we were in line outside hoping to be let in by 6:00 so that we could wait inside for the rally to start around 7:30. 

Though it was a cold New Hampshire night everyone was willing to brave the weather in order to see one of the most intriguing candidates of this campaign cycle. At 6:00 the doors were opened and a security guard had us start to file in towards the metal detectors at the front entrance of the school. But right when we got to the doors the security guard said that this event was actually a ticket only event and anyone without a ticket would be turned away. We were all shocked. This had to be a joke. No where had this event been advertised as a ticket only event and at no point while we were waiting in the cold had anyone from the campaign or event come out to tell us we would only be allowed in if we presented a ticket. And we weren't the only ones in this situation. 90% of the people we had been waiting in line with did not have tickets either and had no idea that we needed them to get in. 

But we weren't giving up so easily. With so few people with tickets we figured that  if we just waited a little while longer the event staff would realize that the 200 people waiting outside to Feel the Bern weren't going anywhere and would have to be let in. 

We waited until 7:00. Almost 2 hours in freezing weather. And to make it worse no one from the event staff had any answers as to when we might be able to get in to the event or why it had not been advertised as a ticket only event. 

We were crushed. And more importantly we were frozen. So we went to our van  to warm up and try again in a half hour. But when we went back, nothing had changed. Now, we were devastated. 

The combination of unwelcoming staffers at the Sanders campaign office, having to wait in the cold for hours, and never being able to actually get in to the event did not leave us with a flattering image of how the Sanders campaign was being run. Now, we know that this was in no way Bernie Sanders' own fault and was most likely poor communications between various campaign staffers. But what we couldn't fathom was why we had to stand outside for so long without ever being told this event was for ticket holders only or why we never got a direct answer when we asked if there was a chance we would be let in to the event at some point during the night. Disappointed and slightly disenfranchised with the Sanders campaign, we headed back to our hotel to thaw and watch the primary results on tv. 

Probably the only good thing about standing outside for 2 hours was seeing this creative sign and the shirt pictured below. 

Day Four: Happy Primary Day!

Today is the day! After weeks of campaigning, debating, and shamelessly promoting themselves the candidates will finally get to see if all of their hard work paid off. Most voting places are open from 6 am until 7 pm but a few towns run things differently on primary day. Because the towns of Dixville Notch, Millsfield, and Hart's Landing all have fewer than 100 residents they are allowed to begin voting at midnight and close their polls after everyone that is eligible to vote has voted. In past elections Dixville Notch has successfully predicted every Republican nominee since 1968, an astounding 12 elections. Today, these were the results:

Dixville Notch: 

Sanders 4, Clinton 0

Kasich 3, Trump 2

Millsfield: 

Clinton 2, Sanders 1

Cruz 9, Trump 3, Kasih 1, Rubio 1, Christie 1, Bush 1, Fiorina, Paul 1 

Hart's Landing:

Sanders 12, Clinton 7, Greenstein 2

Kasich 5, Trump 4, Christie 2, Rubio 1, Bush 1, Carson 1 

Now these towns may not have much to do with the overall outcome of tonight's election but it does showcase American democracy at its finest. And if this story sounded slightly familiar to you, the political drama "The West Wing" dedicated a sentimental plot line to the people of these towns during the reelection of their fictional President Josiah Bartlett. 

The Bern-rito

This "Feel the Bern-rito" was their burrito of the week and it needed its own post because it was just that creative (and good)! 

Candidate Signs in Action

Governor Kasich's signs could be seen as soon as we crossed the New Hampshire border. 

Signs for Trump, Jeb!, and Fiorina were not far behind. 

And of course I needed a picture with the giant Clinton sign outside of the campaign headquarters.

Day One: Clinton, Burritos, and Debates

cToday was the day! Today we woke up and got on the road at 8:30 in the morning and made our way to the great state of New Hampshire (stopping along the way at The Blue Ben Diner to grab some fabulous breakfast of course!).

As soon as we crossed the border into New Hampshire from Vermont it was clear that the primary is less than a week away. We saw sign after sign for all of the major candidates: Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders. Driving into downtown Concord, New Hampshire's capital, it was clear that this state is invested in their legacy of being the first state to vote and how dedicated they are to this freedom.

The first campaign I was able to interact with during this trip was with the Hillary Clinton campaign with my friend Jenny. We walked to their campaign headquarters in Concord and were able to sign up right away to canvass around neighborhoods. While this was an enjoyable experience it seemed like the Clinton headquarters were not as populated as I was expecting them to be in the capital of one of the first primary states. Yes, the people we interacted with were friendly but they did not seem as energetic as I was expecting them to be about their candidate or about campaigning in general.

However, Jenny and I were able to meet and do some canvassing with an older couple named Annie and Henry. These two have been involved in politics in some way or another since George McGovern ran for president in 1972. They were what I thought more people from the Clinton campaign were going to be like. They were impressed that both Jenny and I were taking such an active interest in politics at a young age and were hopeful that our generation would be able to fix some of the problems that their generation had not. Annie and Henry were dedicated, informative, and energetic to get out the vote and make changes in our country. And I love that. To be able to have two generations working towards the same goal is something you definitely do not see everyday, but I'm glad I got to experience that moment.

After canvassing for a few hours, we returned to our hotel room in search of dinner. We found it at a Mexican Burrito shop where (I kid you not) I got a "Feel the Bern-rito." And it was pretty great! Beef, beans, cheese, rice, guacamole, and spicy mayo was a combo that you could only find in this shop; and the only dinner to get in order to truly get the New Hampshire primary experience.

Finally we ended out night with our own debate watching party at our hotel. This debate was sure to be an exciting event and it did not disappoint. It all started with a mis-calling of the candidates names forcing awkward interactions as Ben Carson was forced to wait to be called onto the stage, with the cameras focused on him the whole time, while almost all of the other candidates were called before him. Throughout the debate, Governor Chris Christie confronted Senator Marco Rubio about his inability to answer a question by simply dancing around it. These interactions showed that Christie wasn't afraid to show voters that he is still in this race and that Rubio may not be the next best candidate. While I finished watching the debate it was hard to focus on after such a long day of traveling and volunteering, so I'll try to post a good analytical article about the debate tomorrow morning.

2016 Campaign Cartoons

Looking for a way to laugh a little about the craziness that has become the 2016 Presidential Election?

Click the link below to find editorial cartoons about the presidential candidates, the state of the campaigns, and some of the policies they have begun to propose.

It's sure to make you laugh and cry at the same time whether you think the cartoon is funny or you just can't stand to hear another second about politics and the state of our nation!

(And if you just don't quite feel like clicking the link I've added a few of my favorites to this post )

Campaign 2016 Cartoons

Iowa Caucus Results

On February 2,2016 the Presidential election officially got underway because on this night the first votes were cast in Iowa to see who would become the 45th President of the United States. The most recent polls from Quinnipiac indicated that Donald Trump was leading in the Republican field with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio rounding out the top three while Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley in the Democratic field. However the results hat the polls had been predicting for months could not perfectly indict how he night would turn out.

In order to figure out exactly how the night went down let's begin with the Republican candidates for president. Polls from various sources had long been indicating that Donald Trump was leading both nationally and in Iowa for the past few weeks though his gap had narrowed to a 7 point lead for Trump, the closer it got to Election Day and the closer Ted Cruz got to the Evangelical voters. On the Democratic side the race was even closer with Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by just 3 points which, as Sanders stated later in the evening is "a virtual tie."

By the end of the night it was clear that Ted Cruz would be the Republican winner with 28% of the vote while Donald Trump came in second with 24% and Marco Rubio rounding out the top three with 23%, a margin that was much closer than most polls had predicted between Trump and Rubio. During his acceptance speech Cruz showed yet again that he is the best representative of the conservative movement, stating this was a "victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation." Trump meanwhile was rather subdued in his comments over his second place finish saying that he "absolutely loves the people of Iowa" and that he is "just honored" about the votes that he received from his supports.

Yet maybe the most surprising victory speech came from Marco Rubio who sounded more as if he had won the entire caucus rather than come in third place, "they told me I didn't have a chance because my hair wasn't great enough and my boots were too high, they told me I needed to wait my turn, to wait in line." With Rubio finishing strongly in third place and surprising many who thought that Trump would have had a much larger margin between the other candidates, Rubio will likely be getting more endorsements, money, and media attention than he has thus far. And with more attention this could mean a stronger finish both in the New Hampshire primary next week and the South Carolina and Nevada contests at the end of this month.

While the Republican race was able to be called relatively early in the night, results for the Democratic race were not officially announced until the next morning because the race was the "closest democratic election in the history of Iowa" according to party officials. In the end Clinton beat Sanders by barely a percentage point, though she began celebrating long before this was officially announced. Clinton spoke from a victory stage early in the evening before all of the caucus votes had been finalized, to thank Iowans as she "breathed a big sigh of relief" that her campaign was able to overcome the grassroots momentum that the Bernie Sanders campaign had been gaining for the past few weeks.

Meanwhile during Sanders speech, he seemed extremely grateful to be able to go from zero name recognition in Iowa to a tie with one of the well known political candidates of our time. For some across the nation, the narrow margins from this Iowa caucus evoked memories from 2008 when Clinton, who was known as the presumed nominee, was beaten by then Senator Barack Obama. However, this cycle the Clinton campaign seems extremely eager to take this small margin over Sanders as an absolute win, most likely in the hopes that she will be able to continue to build momentum towards New Hampshire and the rest of the primary season. Sanders is not opposed to declaring victory either as this tie proves to those who doubted him that he can indeed put up a fight against Clinton and Wall Street.

But Monday night was not just about the men and women who were able to finish strong and continue their campaigns and hopes of receiving a party nomination. No, Monday night was also the end of the road for candidates who were simply not able to turn out the support that they had once dreamed of. Republican Governor Mike Huckabee ended his run for the White House on Monday evening as well as Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley. By Wednesday afternoon even more candidates dropped out of the race including Senator Rand Paul and Senator Rick Santorum who had actually won the Iowa Caucus four years ago. For each of these campaigns they never seemed to be able to gain enough momentum to produce a serious run for the presidency, but nevertheless, they tried their best.

Now it's on to New Hampshire, the first state in the country where the first primary votes will be cast for president and where unprecedented things will be bound to happen. Who will come out on top of the Republican field? Will Cruz maintain his lead? Will Trump win and prove that he can turn out the vote when necessary? Or will Rubio continue his upward climb and potentially upset the entire field? And of course we can't forget about the Democrats. With Sanders' home state of Vermont next door he is presumed to win New Hampshire with a large margin over Clinton. But with her slight victory from Iowa will she be able to close the gap on Sanders and possible even win the entire state? Get ready to find out, there's only 5 days to go!

Claims of the Candidates

Have you ever wondered how much of what a candidate says is actually true? Maybe you have when it seems as if some of the information they are talking about in their speeches or during a debate doesn't exactly make sense to you, but for the most part it doesn't occur to people to double check what politicians are saying. However, if you ever feel like what a candidate says isn't true, but you can't seem to find any news site telling you otherwise, try going to FactCheck.org. On this site you will be able to find articles and videos that tell you both what candidates have claimed to be true versus what was actually correct about their statements. Here's what I found on some of the major candidates:

Rand Paul:
Recently, the pro-Paul Super Political Action Committee or PAC, ran an ad that accuses Senator Ted Cruz of being a fake conservative using information from various Senate votes that Cruz participated in. During the ad a voiceover states how Cruz "voted to borrow billions and bust the budget" and how he "skipped the vote to audit the federal reserve." The ad then goes on to say how Rand Paul is the true fiscal conservative in the race and that he will work to "cut spending" and "balance the budget." What the ad doesn't point out is that the first spending vote referenced dealt with an amendment to the defense budget or that this amendment never actually passed but failed in a vote in March of 2015 32-68. The second incorrect information deals with the fact that Cruz skipped a Senate vote. While yes, he did skip the vote, it was because he was campaigning in New Hampshire; during an election year it is common for Senators to miss certain votes simply because it would be hard for them to be in Washington, D.C. and campaigning around the country to get as many votes as possible. FactCheck also goes on to examine Cruz's voting record along with Senator Paul's and comparing them among conservative groups including Club for Growth, the National Taxpayers Union, and the American Conservative Union, all of which A ratings, indicating that both these members of Congress are conservative, contrary to what this ad will have viewers believe. Click on the link below to read the entire article that I used when writing this post: http://www.factcheck.org/2016/01/cruzs-conservative-credentials/

Hillary Clinton:
On January 12, 2016, Chelsea Clinton, Hillary Clinton's daughter claimed that Senator Sanders wanted to "dismantle Obamacare, dismantle the chip program, dismantle Medicare, (and) dismantle private insurance." Clinton goes on to say that by "giving the Republicans, Democratic permission" to do such things that America will go back to a time when millions of people did not have health insurance before the Affordable Care Act was put into place. However, this is not true. Sanders intends to replace current insurance with a program called Medicare-for-All which would be paid for by new tax programs including increasing the amount of taxes wealthy Americans, those who make over $250,000 each year, would pay. Want to know exactly where I got this information? Click on the link below to watch FactCheck's video: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/22/politics/fact-check-trump-iran-clinton-health-care-tapper-origwx-pk/index.html

The State of The Campaigns

~To preface this post I need to say that the information I will be providing will be prior to the events and results of the Iowa Caucus on February 1, 2016 ~

By the end of January any candidate who dreams of taking over the White House by the end of the year has been constantly campaigning in the first two states of the election process for the past few weeks or even months. These are the states of Iowa which will be where the first votes of 2016 will be cast when they caucus on February 1st and New Hampshire which votes in the first primary on February 9th, just eight days after Iowa.

According to the CNN/ORC poll focusing on the Iowa Caucus on the Republican side the top five candidates are businessman Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Marco Rubio, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and Senator Ron Paul with Trump leading Cruz by 11 points. On the Democratic side Senator Bernie Sanders is leading the pack by 8 points over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Governor Martin O'Malley based on the same poll. With only a few days to go before the Iowa Caucus it will be interesting to see which candidates move up in the polls and which candidates loose momentum before the first test that there campaign faces.

Even before the new year started there have been many candidates who ended their bid before the contest truly started including Democrat Senator Jim Webb and Governor Lincoln Chafee and Republican Governor Scott Walker, Governor Rick Perry, Governor Bobby Jindal, and Senator Lindsey Graham. For the rest of the campaigns that are still in the running they have been gearing up by putting out more ads that focus on both what their campaigns offer and how they are the better option to become president than their opponents would be. Candidates in the lead such as Trump, Cruz, Clinton, and Sanders have been, and will continue to hold rallies, meet with their constituents and provide Iowans with the necessary information on how to get people to caucus in support of their candidacy.

Endorsements have also been growing for candidates from fellow politicians such as Sarah Palin who endorsed Donald Trump the other day and Evangelical Leaders who have been focusing their attention and resources towards the Rubio campaign. Yet as both the Iowa Caucus draws nearer with the New Hampshire primaries following shortly after, it will be interesting to see how candidates interact with each other, their constituents, and maybe even which candidates will drop out of the race.